How EURUSD reacts to NFP
Every Non-Farm Payrolls release since 5 Aug 2016 measured on EURUSD's 1-minute chart: 123 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 123 releasesAcross 123 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, EURUSD's first hour averaged 75% of a normal day's range, about 45.8 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 19% of the time.
When NFP came in above forecast (71 times), EURUSD was higher an hour later 37% of the time, down 0.12% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (49 times), EURUSD was higher an hour later 63% of the time, up 0.13% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 1 Aug 2025: 174.7 pips, 201% of a normal day.
Every NFP release on EURUSD
123 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 165 | 65 | -0.11% | -0.29% | 36 pips · 72% | – | |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 29 | 90 | +0.11% | +0.17% | 33 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
| 4 Sept 2026 | 162 | 56 | -0.29% | -0.10% | 42.8 pips · 95% | – | Replay |
| 7 Aug 2026 | -23 | 80 | +0.32% | +0.35% | 53.2 pips · 94% | – | Replay |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 57 | 110 | +0.48% | +0.37% | 74.5 pips · 114% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 172 | 85 | -0.19% | -0.45% | 53.5 pips · 102% | – | Replay |
| 8 May 2026 | 115 | 62 | +0.10% | +0.12% | 28.5 pips · 44% | – | Replay |
| 3 Apr 2026 | 178 | 60 | -0.13% | -0.10% | 29.8 pips · 30% | – | Replay |
| 6 Mar 2026 | -92 | 59 | +0.19% | -0.07% | 51.5 pips · 75% | – | Replay |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 130 | 70 | -0.39% | -0.30% | 68.3 pips · 78% | – | Replay |
| 9 Jan 2026 | 50 | 60 | +0.12% | -0.06% | 40 pips · 77% | – | Replay |
| 16 Dec 2025 | -105 | – | +0.07% | +0.11% | 39 pips · 71% | – | Replay |
| 20 Nov 2025 | 119 | 50 | +0.16% | +0.26% | 47.5 pips · 88% | – | Replay |
| 5 Sept 2025 | 22 | 75 | +0.26% | +0.17% | 51.7 pips · 69% | – | Replay |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 73 | 110 | +1.00% | +1.51% | 174.7 pips · 201% | – | Replay |
| 3 Jul 2025 | 147 | 110 | -0.48% | -0.22% | 73 pips · 83% | – | Replay |
| 6 Jun 2025 | 139 | 130 | +0.03% | -0.26% | 59.5 pips · 62% | yes | Replay |
| 2 May 2025 | 177 | 130 | -0.18% | +0.12% | 61.5 pips · 42% | yes | Replay |
| 4 Apr 2025 | 228 | 135 | -0.25% | -0.47% | 83.5 pips · 88% | – | Replay |
| 7 Mar 2025 | 151 | 160 | +0.25% | +0.08% | 49 pips · 57% | – | Replay |
| 7 Feb 2025 | 143 | 170 | -0.10% | +0.05% | 66 pips · 76% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 256 | 160 | -0.71% | -0.43% | 94.5 pips · 120% | – | Replay |
| 6 Dec 2024 | 227 | 200 | +0.22% | -0.07% | 62.5 pips · 69% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 12 | 113 | +0.28% | +0.07% | 50.5 pips · 101% | – | Replay |
| 4 Oct 2024 | 254 | 140 | -0.56% | -0.61% | 73 pips · 102% | – | Replay |
| 6 Sept 2024 | 142 | 160 | +0.31% | -0.09% | 77 pips · 128% | – | Replay |
| 2 Aug 2024 | 114 | 175 | +0.27% | +0.58% | 69.5 pips · 162% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jul 2024 | 206 | 190 | +0.03% | +0.01% | 45.5 pips · 74% | – | Replay |
| 7 Jun 2024 | 272 | 185 | -0.59% | -0.62% | 93.5 pips · 192% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2024 | 175 | 243 | +0.47% | +0.29% | 62 pips · 97% | – | Replay |
| 5 Apr 2024 | 303 | 200 | -0.35% | -0.42% | 55 pips · 98% | – | Replay |
| 8 Mar 2024 | 275 | 200 | +0.15% | +0.15% | 63.5 pips · 119% | – | Replay |
| 2 Feb 2024 | 353 | 180 | -0.62% | -0.78% | 93 pips · 139% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jan 2024 | 216 | 170 | -0.26% | +0.22% | 72.5 pips · 96% | yes | Replay |
| 8 Dec 2023 | 199 | 180 | -0.29% | -0.30% | 49 pips · 68% | – | Replay |
| 3 Nov 2023 | 150 | 180 | +0.33% | +0.51% | 65.5 pips · 87% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the NFP page.
Frequently asked questions
How does EURUSD react to NFP?
Across 123 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, EURUSD's first hour averaged 75% of a normal day's range, about 45.8 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 19% of the time.
Does EURUSD go up or down after NFP?
Neither reliably on its own: EURUSD was higher an hour after NFP on 47% of releases. When NFP came in above forecast (71 times), EURUSD was higher an hour later 37% of the time, down 0.12% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (49 times), EURUSD was higher an hour later 63% of the time, up 0.13% on average.
How much does EURUSD move on NFP?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 45.8 pips. On 18% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 1 Aug 2025: 174.7 pips, 201% of a normal day.
When is the next NFP?
Friday, 4 December 2026 at 08:30 New York.
