How NAS100 reacts to NFP
Every Non-Farm Payrolls release since 5 Aug 2016 measured on NAS100's 1-minute chart: 122 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 122 releasesAcross 122 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, NAS100's first hour averaged 44% of a normal day's range, about 187.6 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 15% of the time.
When NFP came in above forecast (70 times), NAS100 was higher an hour later 60% of the time, up 0.01% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (49 times), NAS100 was higher an hour later 47% of the time, up 0.06% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 2 Dec 2022: 295.3 pts, 101% of a normal day.
Every NFP release on NAS100
122 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 165 | 65 | -0.27% | +0.03% | 172.3 pts · 34% | – | |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 29 | 90 | +0.42% | +0.51% | 236.3 pts · 54% | – | Replay |
| 4 Sept 2026 | 162 | 56 | -0.36% | -0.29% | 191.8 pts · 49% | – | Replay |
| 7 Aug 2026 | -23 | 80 | +0.25% | +0.13% | 224 pts · 32% | – | Replay |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 57 | 110 | +0.37% | -0.35% | 246.5 pts · 29% | yes | Replay |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 172 | 85 | -0.12% | -0.27% | 138.8 pts · 29% | – | Replay |
| 8 May 2026 | 115 | 62 | +0.20% | -0.08% | 113.3 pts · 27% | – | Replay |
| 3 Apr 2026 | 178 | 60 | -0.09% | – | 139.3 pts · 24% | – | Replay |
| 6 Mar 2026 | -92 | 59 | -0.19% | -0.76% | 296.3 pts · 61% | – | Replay |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 130 | 70 | +0.36% | +0.66% | 213.3 pts · 42% | – | Replay |
| 9 Jan 2026 | 50 | 60 | +0.23% | -0.11% | 124.8 pts · 37% | – | Replay |
| 16 Dec 2025 | -105 | – | +0.04% | -0.33% | 155.3 pts · 36% | yes | Replay |
| 20 Nov 2025 | 119 | 50 | +0.23% | +0.32% | 134.8 pts · 28% | – | Replay |
| 5 Sept 2025 | 22 | 75 | +0.25% | +0.39% | 172.3 pts · 59% | – | Replay |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 73 | 110 | -0.16% | -0.14% | 121.8 pts · 52% | – | Replay |
| 3 Jul 2025 | 147 | 110 | +0.26% | +0.30% | 80.5 pts · 25% | – | Replay |
| 6 Jun 2025 | 139 | 130 | +0.37% | +0.54% | 133.8 pts · 37% | – | Replay |
| 2 May 2025 | 177 | 130 | +0.39% | +0.73% | 207 pts · 24% | – | Replay |
| 4 Apr 2025 | 228 | 135 | +0.18% | -0.02% | 214.8 pts · 44% | – | Replay |
| 7 Mar 2025 | 151 | 160 | +0.35% | -0.35% | 247.3 pts · 58% | yes | Replay |
| 7 Feb 2025 | 143 | 170 | -0.05% | +0.17% | 139.8 pts · 34% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 256 | 160 | -0.95% | -0.51% | 275 pts · 66% | – | Replay |
| 6 Dec 2024 | 227 | 200 | +0.15% | +0.09% | 89.5 pts · 34% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 12 | 113 | +0.16% | -0.17% | 82.5 pts · 28% | yes | Replay |
| 4 Oct 2024 | 254 | 140 | +0.39% | +0.79% | 199.8 pts · 59% | – | Replay |
| 6 Sept 2024 | 142 | 160 | +0.46% | +0.81% | 252.3 pts · 72% | – | Replay |
| 2 Aug 2024 | 114 | 175 | -0.94% | -0.32% | 253 pts · 61% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jul 2024 | 206 | 190 | +0.01% | -0.06% | 123 pts · 49% | yes | Replay |
| 7 Jun 2024 | 272 | 185 | -0.42% | -0.26% | 206.8 pts · 92% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2024 | 175 | 243 | +0.98% | +1.13% | 224.8 pts · 66% | – | Replay |
| 5 Apr 2024 | 303 | 200 | -0.10% | -0.08% | 138.8 pts · 52% | – | Replay |
| 8 Mar 2024 | 275 | 200 | +0.30% | +0.24% | 164.3 pts · 62% | – | Replay |
| 2 Feb 2024 | 353 | 180 | -0.47% | -0.55% | 128.5 pts · 52% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jan 2024 | 216 | 170 | -0.32% | +0.25% | 117 pts · 56% | yes | Replay |
| 8 Dec 2023 | 199 | 180 | -0.21% | -0.14% | 110.8 pts · 54% | – | Replay |
| 3 Nov 2023 | 150 | 180 | +0.54% | +0.59% | 106.1 pts · 39% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the NFP page.
Frequently asked questions
How does NAS100 react to NFP?
Across 122 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, NAS100's first hour averaged 44% of a normal day's range, about 187.6 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 15% of the time.
Does NAS100 go up or down after NFP?
Neither reliably on its own: NAS100 was higher an hour after NFP on 53% of releases. When NFP came in above forecast (70 times), NAS100 was higher an hour later 60% of the time, up 0.01% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (49 times), NAS100 was higher an hour later 47% of the time, up 0.06% on average.
How much does NAS100 move on NFP?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 187.6 pts. On 1% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 2 Dec 2022: 295.3 pts, 101% of a normal day.
When is the next NFP?
Friday, 4 December 2026 at 08:30 New York.
