How Markets React to NFP
Every Non-Farm Payrolls release, measured across gold, indices, forex and oil from 1-minute bars: the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes, what it swept, and whether the first move held. A new page lands the morning after each release.
First hour after NFP, on average
24 releases so far. The first-hour range as a share of each market's normal full day.
| Market | First hour vs a normal day | Reversed within the hour | Swept a key level |
|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY | 84% | 3 of 24 | 10 of 24 |
| EURUSD | 83% | 3 of 24 | 10 of 24 |
| GBPUSD | 77% | 3 of 24 | 9 of 24 |
| AUDUSD | 71% | 4 of 23 | 10 of 23 |
| Gold | 60% | 3 of 22 | 7 of 22 |
| Silver | 55% | 6 of 22 | 4 of 22 |
| S&P 500 | 43% | 4 of 24 | 9 of 24 |
| US30 | 43% | 5 of 24 | 8 of 24 |
| NAS100 | 40% | 5 of 24 | 10 of 24 |
| Bitcoin | 40% | 4 of 23 | 1 of 23 |
| Oil | 37% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 22 |
| Ethereum | 35% | 4 of 23 | 1 of 23 |
Every NFP release
Frequently asked questions
Which market moves most on NFP?
Across 24 NFP releases measured, USDJPY moved most in the first hour relative to its normal day (84% of an average day's range), then EURUSD (83%) and GBPUSD (77%).
Does the first move after NFP hold?
USDJPY: reversed within the hour 3 of 24 times; EURUSD: reversed within the hour 3 of 24 times; GBPUSD: reversed within the hour 3 of 24 times; AUDUSD: reversed within the hour 4 of 23 times.
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