How US30 reacts to NFP
Every Non-Farm Payrolls release since 5 Aug 2016 measured on US30's 1-minute chart: 122 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 122 releasesAcross 122 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, US30's first hour averaged 45% of a normal day's range, about 238.2 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 16% of the time.
When NFP came in above forecast (70 times), US30 was higher an hour later 67% of the time, up 0.11% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (49 times), US30 was higher an hour later 45% of the time, up 0.01% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 2 Aug 2019: 250 pts, 103% of a normal day.
Every NFP release on US30
122 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 165 | 65 | -0.18% | -0.38% | 217 pts · 40% | – | |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 29 | 90 | +0.35% | +0.16% | 283 pts · 48% | – | Replay |
| 4 Sept 2026 | 162 | 56 | -0.21% | -0.28% | 197 pts · 45% | – | Replay |
| 7 Aug 2026 | -23 | 80 | +0.13% | -0.05% | 168 pts · 25% | – | Replay |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 57 | 110 | +0.27% | +0.41% | 228 pts · 31% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 172 | 85 | -0.07% | +0.10% | 217 pts · 38% | yes | Replay |
| 8 May 2026 | 115 | 62 | +0.16% | +0.18% | 159 pts · 26% | – | Replay |
| 3 Apr 2026 | 178 | 60 | -0.10% | – | 311 pts · 33% | – | Replay |
| 6 Mar 2026 | -92 | 59 | -0.20% | -0.85% | 486 pts · 66% | – | Replay |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 130 | 70 | +0.23% | +0.27% | 205 pts · 31% | – | Replay |
| 9 Jan 2026 | 50 | 60 | +0.12% | -0.13% | 202 pts · 38% | yes | Replay |
| 16 Dec 2025 | -105 | – | +0.04% | -0.18% | 185 pts · 33% | yes | Replay |
| 20 Nov 2025 | 119 | 50 | +0.24% | +0.51% | 269 pts · 47% | – | Replay |
| 5 Sept 2025 | 22 | 75 | +0.22% | +0.24% | 263 pts · 63% | – | Replay |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 73 | 110 | -0.10% | -0.03% | 215 pts · 50% | – | Replay |
| 3 Jul 2025 | 147 | 110 | +0.12% | +0.06% | 123 pts · 23% | – | Replay |
| 6 Jun 2025 | 139 | 130 | +0.24% | +0.52% | 257 pts · 48% | – | Replay |
| 2 May 2025 | 177 | 130 | +0.27% | +0.55% | 313.5 pts · 22% | – | Replay |
| 4 Apr 2025 | 228 | 135 | +0.10% | +0.08% | 396 pts · 51% | – | Replay |
| 7 Mar 2025 | 151 | 160 | +0.23% | -0.43% | 473 pts · 81% | yes | Replay |
| 7 Feb 2025 | 143 | 170 | -0.03% | +0.11% | 178 pts · 33% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 256 | 160 | -0.72% | -0.41% | 405.5 pts · 76% | – | Replay |
| 6 Dec 2024 | 227 | 200 | +0.16% | +0.27% | 177 pts · 42% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 12 | 113 | +0.06% | +0.10% | 126 pts · 30% | – | Replay |
| 4 Oct 2024 | 254 | 140 | +0.14% | +0.37% | 204 pts · 42% | – | Replay |
| 6 Sept 2024 | 142 | 160 | +0.16% | +0.53% | 269 pts · 64% | – | Replay |
| 2 Aug 2024 | 114 | 175 | -0.66% | -0.17% | 361 pts · 70% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jul 2024 | 206 | 190 | +0.10% | +0.05% | 147 pts · 39% | – | Replay |
| 7 Jun 2024 | 272 | 185 | -0.37% | -0.16% | 280 pts · 78% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2024 | 175 | 243 | +0.61% | +0.56% | 277 pts · 55% | – | Replay |
| 5 Apr 2024 | 303 | 200 | -0.11% | -0.18% | 178 pts · 42% | – | Replay |
| 8 Mar 2024 | 275 | 200 | +0.22% | +0.21% | 233 pts · 71% | – | Replay |
| 2 Feb 2024 | 353 | 180 | -0.33% | -0.36% | 202.5 pts · 59% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jan 2024 | 216 | 170 | -0.31% | +0.15% | 201 pts · 63% | – | Replay |
| 8 Dec 2023 | 199 | 180 | -0.13% | +0.09% | 154 pts · 59% | yes | Replay |
| 3 Nov 2023 | 150 | 180 | +0.37% | +0.45% | 216 pts · 49% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the NFP page.
Frequently asked questions
How does US30 react to NFP?
Across 122 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, US30's first hour averaged 45% of a normal day's range, about 238.2 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 16% of the time.
Does US30 go up or down after NFP?
Neither reliably on its own: US30 was higher an hour after NFP on 57% of releases. When NFP came in above forecast (70 times), US30 was higher an hour later 67% of the time, up 0.11% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (49 times), US30 was higher an hour later 45% of the time, up 0.01% on average.
How much does US30 move on NFP?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 238.2 pts. On 2% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 2 Aug 2019: 250 pts, 103% of a normal day.
When is the next NFP?
Friday, 4 December 2026 at 08:30 New York.
