How EURUSD reacts to CPI
Every US CPI (inflation) release since 15 Jul 2016 measured on EURUSD's 1-minute chart: 119 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 119 releasesAcross 119 CPI releases since 15 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, EURUSD's first hour averaged 69% of a normal day's range, about 41.4 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 18% of the time.
When CPI came in above forecast (41 times), EURUSD was higher an hour later 29% of the time, down 0.20% on average. When CPI came in below forecast (41 times), EURUSD was higher an hour later 71% of the time, up 0.24% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 14 Nov 2023: 165 pips, 231% of a normal day.
Every CPI release on EURUSD
119 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.50% | -0.61% | 84.5 pips · 133% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.05% | +0.13% | 42.5 pips · 94% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.01% | +0.05% | 34 pips · 66% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.29% | +0.30% | 57 pips · 94% | – | Replay |
| 10 Jun 2026 | 4.2 | 4.2 | +0.03% | +0.10% | 22 pips · 40% | – | Replay |
| 12 May 2026 | 3.8 | 3.7 | +0.04% | -0.00% | 16.5 pips · 27% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2026 | 3.3 | 3.3 | +0.06% | +0.15% | 22 pips · 22% | – | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2026 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.12% | +0.08% | 30 pips · 33% | – | Replay |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.12% | +0.14% | 25.3 pips · 51% | – | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 2.7 | 3.1 | +0.06% | +0.08% | 33.8 pips · 61% | – | Replay |
| 24 Oct 2025 | 3 | 3.1 | +0.25% | +0.15% | 44 pips · 71% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2025 | 2.9 | 2.9 | +0.32% | +0.36% | 85 pips · 113% | – | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2025 | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.28% | +0.15% | 52 pips · 54% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jul 2025 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.13% | +0.00% | 46.5 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jun 2025 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.45% | +0.22% | 85.5 pips · 98% | – | Replay |
| 13 May 2025 | 2.3 | 2.4 | -0.04% | +0.22% | 40 pips · 37% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2025 | 2.4 | 2.6 | +0.18% | +0.13% | 43 pips · 40% | – | Replay |
| 12 Mar 2025 | 2.8 | 2.9 | +0.16% | -0.01% | 56 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
| 12 Feb 2025 | 3 | 2.9 | -0.48% | -0.22% | 59 pips · 68% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jan 2025 | 2.9 | 2.9 | +0.30% | +0.36% | 51.2 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
| 11 Dec 2024 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.02% | -0.08% | 34.5 pips · 40% | yes | Replay |
| 13 Nov 2024 | 2.6 | 2.6 | +0.15% | -0.07% | 36 pips · 49% | – | Replay |
| 10 Oct 2024 | 2.4 | 2.3 | +0.07% | +0.11% | 49.5 pips · 71% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2024 | 2.5 | 2.6 | -0.12% | -0.24% | 40.5 pips · 65% | – | Replay |
| 14 Aug 2024 | 2.9 | 3 | -0.07% | -0.02% | 37.3 pips · 68% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jul 2024 | 3 | 3.1 | +0.30% | +0.34% | 52.5 pips · 103% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 3.3 | 3.4 | +0.46% | +0.63% | 69.2 pips · 131% | – | Replay |
| 15 May 2024 | 3.4 | 3.4 | +0.22% | +0.21% | 39 pips · 69% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2024 | 3.5 | 3.4 | -0.67% | -0.83% | 101.5 pips · 189% | – | Replay |
| 12 Mar 2024 | 3.2 | 3.1 | -0.05% | -0.19% | 42 pips · 78% | – | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2024 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -0.63% | -0.68% | 115.5 pips · 183% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jan 2024 | 3.4 | 3.2 | -0.12% | -0.29% | 81 pips · 103% | – | Replay |
| 12 Dec 2023 | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.09% | -0.25% | 56.5 pips · 77% | – | Replay |
| 14 Nov 2023 | 3.2 | 3.3 | +0.61% | +0.84% | 165 pips · 231% | – | Replay |
| 12 Oct 2023 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.42% | -0.51% | 61.5 pips · 84% | – | Replay |
| 13 Sept 2023 | 3.7 | 3.6 | +0.10% | +0.07% | 51.5 pips · 75% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the CPI page.
Frequently asked questions
How does EURUSD react to CPI?
Across 119 CPI releases since 15 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, EURUSD's first hour averaged 69% of a normal day's range, about 41.4 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 18% of the time.
Does EURUSD go up or down after CPI?
Neither reliably on its own: EURUSD was higher an hour after CPI on 54% of releases. When CPI came in above forecast (41 times), EURUSD was higher an hour later 29% of the time, down 0.20% on average. When CPI came in below forecast (41 times), EURUSD was higher an hour later 71% of the time, up 0.24% on average.
How much does EURUSD move on CPI?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 41.4 pips. On 14% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 14 Nov 2023: 165 pips, 231% of a normal day.
When is the next CPI?
Tuesday, 10 November 2026 at 08:30 New York. Consensus 3.9%.
