How USDJPY reacts to NFP
Every Non-Farm Payrolls release since 5 Aug 2016 measured on USDJPY's 1-minute chart: 121 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 121 releasesAcross 121 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, USDJPY's first hour averaged 74% of a normal day's range, about 86.6 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 17% of the time.
When NFP came in above forecast (69 times), USDJPY was higher an hour later 70% of the time, up 0.14% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (49 times), USDJPY was higher an hour later 27% of the time, down 0.17% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 1 Aug 2025: 238.6 pips, 181% of a normal day.
Every NFP release on USDJPY
121 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 165 | 65 | +0.03% | +0.05% | 43.7 pips · 59% | – | |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 29 | 90 | -0.27% | -0.06% | 61.1 pips · 45% | – | Replay |
| 4 Sept 2026 | 162 | 56 | +0.30% | -0.26% | 139.9 pips · 130% | yes | Replay |
| 7 Aug 2026 | -23 | 80 | -0.81% | -0.58% | 167.2 pips · 139% | – | Replay |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 57 | 110 | -0.49% | -0.26% | 92.4 pips · 151% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 172 | 85 | +0.10% | +0.18% | 55 pips · 97% | – | Replay |
| 8 May 2026 | 115 | 62 | -0.10% | -0.16% | 46.4 pips · 38% | – | Replay |
| 3 Apr 2026 | 178 | 60 | +0.06% | +0.02% | 39.1 pips · 33% | – | Replay |
| 6 Mar 2026 | -92 | 59 | -0.18% | +0.07% | 74.5 pips · 56% | – | Replay |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 130 | 70 | +0.57% | +0.24% | 188 pips · 126% | – | Replay |
| 9 Jan 2026 | 50 | 60 | -0.10% | +0.22% | 71.4 pips · 70% | yes | Replay |
| 16 Dec 2025 | -105 | – | +0.01% | +0.02% | 61.2 pips · 53% | – | Replay |
| 20 Nov 2025 | 119 | 50 | -0.12% | +0.02% | 72.9 pips · 67% | – | Replay |
| 5 Sept 2025 | 22 | 75 | -0.26% | -0.41% | 86.3 pips · 78% | – | Replay |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 73 | 110 | -0.81% | -1.56% | 238.6 pips · 181% | – | Replay |
| 3 Jul 2025 | 147 | 110 | +0.81% | +0.71% | 150 pips · 112% | – | Replay |
| 6 Jun 2025 | 139 | 130 | +0.07% | +0.43% | 82.3 pips · 53% | – | Replay |
| 2 May 2025 | 177 | 130 | +0.23% | -0.19% | 95.2 pips · 44% | yes | Replay |
| 4 Apr 2025 | 228 | 135 | +0.29% | +0.20% | 74.9 pips · 52% | – | Replay |
| 7 Mar 2025 | 151 | 160 | -0.28% | -0.37% | 96.6 pips · 62% | – | Replay |
| 7 Feb 2025 | 143 | 170 | -0.05% | -0.17% | 112.1 pips · 73% | – | Replay |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 256 | 160 | +0.47% | +0.13% | 117.6 pips · 88% | – | Replay |
| 6 Dec 2024 | 227 | 200 | -0.25% | -0.72% | 121.2 pips · 77% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 12 | 113 | -0.40% | -0.24% | 97.5 pips · 75% | – | Replay |
| 4 Oct 2024 | 254 | 140 | +1.25% | +1.44% | 231.1 pips · 113% | – | Replay |
| 6 Sept 2024 | 142 | 160 | -0.75% | -0.03% | 211.3 pips · 120% | – | Replay |
| 2 Aug 2024 | 114 | 175 | -1.09% | -0.90% | 196.8 pips · 105% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jul 2024 | 206 | 190 | +0.04% | +0.17% | 83.5 pips · 77% | – | Replay |
| 7 Jun 2024 | 272 | 185 | +0.74% | +0.73% | 167.6 pips · 165% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2024 | 175 | 243 | -0.77% | -0.49% | 134.9 pips · 88% | – | Replay |
| 5 Apr 2024 | 303 | 200 | +0.23% | +0.24% | 47.2 pips · 45% | – | Replay |
| 8 Mar 2024 | 275 | 200 | -0.23% | -0.22% | 105.6 pips · 127% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jan 2024 | 216 | 170 | +0.46% | -0.09% | 101.5 pips · 55% | – | Replay |
| 8 Dec 2023 | 199 | 180 | +0.38% | +0.04% | 144.7 pips · 99% | – | Replay |
| 3 Nov 2023 | 150 | 180 | -0.33% | -0.53% | 93.4 pips · 104% | – | Replay |
| 6 Oct 2023 | 336 | 170 | +0.23% | +0.25% | 55.6 pips · 56% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the NFP page.
Frequently asked questions
How does USDJPY react to NFP?
Across 121 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, USDJPY's first hour averaged 74% of a normal day's range, about 86.6 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 17% of the time.
Does USDJPY go up or down after NFP?
Neither reliably on its own: USDJPY was higher an hour after NFP on 53% of releases. When NFP came in above forecast (69 times), USDJPY was higher an hour later 70% of the time, up 0.14% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (49 times), USDJPY was higher an hour later 27% of the time, down 0.17% on average.
How much does USDJPY move on NFP?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 86.6 pips. On 21% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 1 Aug 2025: 238.6 pips, 181% of a normal day.
When is the next NFP?
Friday, 4 December 2026 at 08:30 New York.
