How S&P 500 reacts to NFP
Every Non-Farm Payrolls release since 5 Aug 2016 measured on S&P 500's 1-minute chart: 122 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 122 releasesAcross 122 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, S&P 500's first hour averaged 47% of a normal day's range, about 32.5 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 16% of the time.
When NFP came in above forecast (70 times), S&P 500 was higher an hour later 64% of the time, up 0.07% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (49 times), S&P 500 was higher an hour later 51% of the time, up 0.05% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 7 Jun 2024: 51 pts, 108% of a normal day.
Every NFP release on S&P 500
122 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 165 | 65 | -0.15% | -0.10% | 26.8 pts · 37% | – | |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 29 | 90 | +0.34% | +0.31% | 38.5 pts · 52% | – | Replay |
| 4 Sept 2026 | 162 | 56 | -0.27% | -0.24% | 30.8 pts · 50% | – | Replay |
| 7 Aug 2026 | -23 | 80 | +0.13% | +0.01% | 25.5 pts · 27% | – | Replay |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 57 | 110 | +0.23% | -0.02% | 24.3 pts · 21% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 172 | 85 | -0.08% | -0.14% | 24.8 pts · 33% | – | Replay |
| 8 May 2026 | 115 | 62 | +0.12% | -0.07% | 23.5 pts · 30% | yes | Replay |
| 3 Apr 2026 | 178 | 60 | -0.08% | – | 40.5 pts · 30% | – | Replay |
| 6 Mar 2026 | -92 | 59 | -0.16% | -0.69% | 68.3 pts · 67% | – | Replay |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 130 | 70 | +0.27% | +0.45% | 35.5 pts · 38% | – | Replay |
| 9 Jan 2026 | 50 | 60 | +0.15% | -0.07% | 21.5 pts · 33% | – | Replay |
| 16 Dec 2025 | -105 | – | +0.04% | -0.23% | 29.8 pts · 36% | yes | Replay |
| 20 Nov 2025 | 119 | 50 | +0.22% | +0.36% | 34.3 pts · 38% | – | Replay |
| 5 Sept 2025 | 22 | 75 | +0.24% | +0.29% | 38 pts · 66% | – | Replay |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 73 | 110 | -0.15% | -0.10% | 31 pts · 58% | – | Replay |
| 3 Jul 2025 | 147 | 110 | +0.18% | +0.19% | 16 pts · 22% | – | Replay |
| 6 Jun 2025 | 139 | 130 | +0.32% | +0.52% | 35.3 pts · 44% | – | Replay |
| 2 May 2025 | 177 | 130 | +0.34% | +0.66% | 52 pts · 25% | – | Replay |
| 4 Apr 2025 | 228 | 135 | +0.15% | +0.08% | 59.5 pts · 52% | – | Replay |
| 7 Mar 2025 | 151 | 160 | +0.27% | -0.35% | 65.5 pts · 75% | yes | Replay |
| 7 Feb 2025 | 143 | 170 | -0.05% | +0.16% | 27.3 pts · 34% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 256 | 160 | -0.77% | -0.44% | 59.3 pts · 70% | – | Replay |
| 6 Dec 2024 | 227 | 200 | +0.20% | +0.20% | 24.8 pts · 47% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 12 | 113 | +0.12% | +0.01% | 15.8 pts · 27% | – | Replay |
| 4 Oct 2024 | 254 | 140 | +0.21% | +0.45% | 36.8 pts · 54% | – | Replay |
| 6 Sept 2024 | 142 | 160 | +0.31% | +0.65% | 52.8 pts · 79% | – | Replay |
| 2 Aug 2024 | 114 | 175 | -0.81% | -0.35% | 58.3 pts · 76% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jul 2024 | 206 | 190 | +0.09% | +0.01% | 20 pts · 42% | – | Replay |
| 7 Jun 2024 | 272 | 185 | -0.41% | -0.27% | 51 pts · 108% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2024 | 175 | 243 | +0.82% | +0.88% | 49.5 pts · 65% | – | Replay |
| 5 Apr 2024 | 303 | 200 | -0.13% | -0.10% | 29 pts · 53% | – | Replay |
| 8 Mar 2024 | 275 | 200 | +0.24% | +0.18% | 37.5 pts · 75% | – | Replay |
| 2 Feb 2024 | 353 | 180 | -0.42% | -0.50% | 32.4 pts · 67% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jan 2024 | 216 | 170 | -0.31% | +0.23% | 30.3 pts · 67% | yes | Replay |
| 8 Dec 2023 | 199 | 180 | -0.11% | +0.01% | 30.3 pts · 77% | – | Replay |
| 3 Nov 2023 | 150 | 180 | +0.50% | +0.62% | 31.8 pts · 48% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the NFP page.
Frequently asked questions
How does S&P 500 react to NFP?
Across 122 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, S&P 500's first hour averaged 47% of a normal day's range, about 32.5 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 16% of the time.
Does S&P 500 go up or down after NFP?
Neither reliably on its own: S&P 500 was higher an hour after NFP on 57% of releases. When NFP came in above forecast (70 times), S&P 500 was higher an hour later 64% of the time, up 0.07% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (49 times), S&P 500 was higher an hour later 51% of the time, up 0.05% on average.
How much does S&P 500 move on NFP?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 32.5 pts. On 2% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 7 Jun 2024: 51 pts, 108% of a normal day.
When is the next NFP?
Friday, 4 December 2026 at 08:30 New York.
