How EURUSD reacts to FOMC
Every FOMC rate decision release since 14 Dec 2022 measured on EURUSD's 1-minute chart: 32 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 32 releasesAcross 32 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, EURUSD's first hour averaged 89% of a normal day's range, about 60.5 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 25% of the time.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 16 Sept 2026: 78 pips, 169% of a normal day.
Every FOMC release on EURUSD
32 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4 | – | +0.02% | +0.12% | 47 pips · 73% | – | Replay |
| 16 Sept 2026 | 4 | 4 | -0.25% | -0.63% | 78 pips · 169% | – | Replay |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.21% | +0.49% | 65 pips · 127% | – | Replay |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.40% | -0.49% | 60 pips · 109% | – | Replay |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.06% | -0.13% | 30.5 pips · 44% | – | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.02% | -0.34% | 49 pips · 55% | yes | Replay |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.09% | +0.15% | 46.5 pips · 66% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.10% | +0.19% | 45.5 pips · 89% | – | Replay |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 4 | 4 | -0.02% | -0.44% | 68 pips · 111% | – | Replay |
| 17 Sept 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.32% | -0.17% | 100.5 pips · 126% | yes | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.00% | -0.49% | 79.5 pips · 95% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Jun 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.03% | -0.20% | 56.5 pips · 58% | yes | Replay |
| 7 May 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.08% | -0.08% | 45 pips · 36% | yes | Replay |
| 19 Mar 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.19% | +0.34% | 56.5 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
| 29 Jan 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.25% | -0.05% | 41 pips · 47% | – | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.55% | -1.03% | 114.8 pips · 138% | – | Replay |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.14% | -0.15% | 37 pips · 60% | – | Replay |
| 18 Sept 2024 | 5 | 5.25 | +0.34% | +0.20% | 62.5 pips · 100% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jul 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.07% | +0.10% | 28.5 pips · 66% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.11% | -0.26% | 40 pips · 75% | – | Replay |
| 1 May 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.17% | +0.51% | 62 pips · 99% | – | Replay |
| 20 Mar 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.22% | +0.46% | 53.5 pips · 107% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jan 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.15% | -0.05% | 76 pips · 120% | – | Replay |
| 13 Dec 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.48% | +0.94% | 105.5 pips · 161% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.10% | +0.08% | 35.5 pips · 48% | – | Replay |
| 20 Sept 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.40% | -0.38% | 54 pips · 76% | – | Replay |
| 26 Jul 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.11% | +0.41% | 48.5 pips · 67% | – | Replay |
| 14 Jun 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.41% | -0.20% | 62 pips · 94% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.22% | +0.10% | 54 pips · 69% | – | Replay |
| 22 Mar 2023 | 5 | 5 | +0.54% | +0.79% | 120 pips · 125% | – | Replay |
| 1 Feb 2023 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.10% | +0.55% | 98.5 pips · 112% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Dec 2022 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.26% | -0.14% | 64.3 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
Frequently asked questions
How does EURUSD react to FOMC?
Across 32 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, EURUSD's first hour averaged 89% of a normal day's range, about 60.5 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 25% of the time.
Does EURUSD go up or down after FOMC?
Neither reliably on its own: EURUSD was higher an hour after FOMC on 47% of releases.
How much does EURUSD move on FOMC?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 60.5 pips. On 38% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 16 Sept 2026: 78 pips, 169% of a normal day.
When is the next FOMC?
Wednesday, 9 December 2026 at 14:00 New York.
