How EURUSD reacts to ECB
Every ECB rate decision release since 21 Jul 2016 measured on EURUSD's 1-minute chart: 83 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 83 releasesAcross 83 ECB releases since 21 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, EURUSD's first hour averaged 78% of a normal day's range, about 40.6 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 28% of the time.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 12 Sept 2019: 138.5 pips, 259% of a normal day.
Every ECB release on EURUSD
83 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | 2.65 | 2.65 | -0.19% | +0.05% | 42 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
| 10 Sept 2026 | 2.65 | 2.65 | -0.01% | -0.13% | 36.5 pips · 82% | – | Replay |
| 23 Jul 2026 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.09% | -0.23% | 28 pips · 53% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jun 2026 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.02% | -0.08% | 27 pips · 49% | – | Replay |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 2.15 | 2.15 | -0.07% | -0.10% | 22 pips · 32% | – | Replay |
| 19 Mar 2026 | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.10% | +0.21% | 59 pips · 65% | – | Replay |
| 5 Feb 2026 | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.01% | +0.22% | 30.5 pips · 36% | – | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.09% | +0.16% | 39.3 pips · 71% | – | Replay |
| 30 Oct 2025 | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.04% | +0.21% | 33.5 pips · 54% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2025 | 2.15 | 2.15 | -0.11% | +0.37% | 85 pips · 113% | yes | Replay |
| 24 Jul 2025 | 2.15 | 2.15 | -0.00% | +0.03% | 34 pips · 42% | yes | Replay |
| 5 Jun 2025 | 2.15 | 2.15 | -0.00% | +0.32% | 50 pips · 51% | yes | Replay |
| 17 Apr 2025 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.17% | -0.06% | 42.5 pips · 31% | – | Replay |
| 6 Mar 2025 | 2.65 | 2.65 | +0.22% | +0.28% | 55.5 pips · 65% | – | Replay |
| 30 Jan 2025 | 2.9 | 2.9 | +0.03% | +0.32% | 65.5 pips · 75% | – | Replay |
| 12 Dec 2024 | 3.15 | 3.15 | -0.03% | -0.07% | 33 pips · 39% | – | Replay |
| 17 Oct 2024 | 3.4 | 3.4 | +0.03% | -0.39% | 60.5 pips · 96% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Sept 2024 | 3.65 | 3.65 | +0.07% | +0.20% | 31.5 pips · 51% | – | Replay |
| 18 Jul 2024 | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.06% | -0.07% | 18.5 pips · 39% | yes | Replay |
| 6 Jun 2024 | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.13% | +0.11% | 38.5 pips · 77% | – | Replay |
| 11 Apr 2024 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.12% | +0.11% | 36 pips · 61% | yes | Replay |
| 7 Mar 2024 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.11% | -0.06% | 30 pips · 58% | – | Replay |
| 25 Jan 2024 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.04% | -0.28% | 48 pips · 71% | – | Replay |
| 14 Dec 2023 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.14% | +0.54% | 72 pips · 104% | – | Replay |
| 26 Oct 2023 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.01% | +0.14% | 40 pips · 54% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Sept 2023 | 4.5 | 4.25 | -0.30% | -0.35% | 93.5 pips · 137% | – | Replay |
| 27 Jul 2023 | 4.25 | 4.25 | -0.24% | -0.82% | 96.5 pips · 133% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jun 2023 | 4 | 4 | +0.11% | +0.41% | 55 pips · 82% | – | Replay |
| 4 May 2023 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.18% | -0.32% | 85 pips · 108% | – | Replay |
| 16 Mar 2023 | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.05% | +0.02% | 69.5 pips · 76% | – | Replay |
| 2 Feb 2023 | 3 | 3 | -0.10% | -0.38% | 75 pips · 83% | – | Replay |
| 15 Dec 2022 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.23% | +0.85% | 117 pips · 115% | – | Replay |
| 27 Oct 2022 | 2 | 2 | -0.22% | -0.62% | 67.5 pips · 55% | – | Replay |
| 8 Sept 2022 | 1.25 | 1.25 | -0.18% | -0.74% | 114.5 pips · 113% | – | Replay |
| 21 Jul 2022 | 0.5 | 0.25 | +0.54% | +0.00% | 99 pips · 91% | – | Replay |
| 9 Jun 2022 | 0 | 0 | -0.26% | +0.10% | 87 pips · 94% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the ECB page.
Frequently asked questions
How does EURUSD react to ECB?
Across 83 ECB releases since 21 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, EURUSD's first hour averaged 78% of a normal day's range, about 40.6 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 28% of the time.
Does EURUSD go up or down after ECB?
Neither reliably on its own: EURUSD was higher an hour after ECB on 55% of releases.
How much does EURUSD move on ECB?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 40.6 pips. On 19% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 12 Sept 2019: 138.5 pips, 259% of a normal day.
