How Gold reacts to NFP
Every Non-Farm Payrolls release since 5 Aug 2016 measured on Gold's 1-minute chart: 118 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 118 releasesAcross 118 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, Gold's first hour averaged 72% of a normal day's range, about $54.6 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 17% of the time.
When NFP came in above forecast (69 times), Gold was higher an hour later 41% of the time, down 0.21% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (46 times), Gold was higher an hour later 78% of the time, up 0.33% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 2 Sept 2016: $26.6, 173% of a normal day.
Every NFP release on Gold
118 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 165 | 65 | -0.36% | -0.69% | $36.8 · 61% | – | |
| 4 Sept 2026 | 162 | 56 | -1.87% | -1.36% | $112 · 102% | – | Replay |
| 7 Aug 2026 | -23 | 80 | +1.06% | +1.00% | $61.7 · 68% | – | Replay |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 57 | 110 | +1.61% | +1.17% | $77.5 · 63% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 172 | 85 | -0.41% | -1.39% | $68.3 · 66% | – | Replay |
| 8 May 2026 | 115 | 62 | +0.27% | +0.35% | $32 · 30% | – | Replay |
| 6 Mar 2026 | -92 | 59 | +0.90% | +0.38% | $58 · 38% | – | Replay |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 130 | 70 | -0.68% | -0.20% | $70.8 · 32% | – | Replay |
| 9 Jan 2026 | 50 | 60 | +0.24% | +0.48% | $39.2 · 44% | – | Replay |
| 16 Dec 2025 | -105 | – | +0.09% | +0.61% | $33.9 · 50% | – | Replay |
| 20 Nov 2025 | 119 | 50 | -0.10% | -0.15% | $30.1 · 31% | – | Replay |
| 5 Sept 2025 | 22 | 75 | +0.63% | +0.66% | $35.4 · 80% | – | Replay |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 73 | 110 | +0.87% | +1.51% | $54.4 · 112% | – | Replay |
| 3 Jul 2025 | 147 | 110 | -0.61% | -0.50% | $38.7 · 72% | – | Replay |
| 6 Jun 2025 | 139 | 130 | -0.02% | -0.12% | $21.7 · 31% | – | Replay |
| 2 May 2025 | 177 | 130 | -0.24% | -0.05% | $24.6 · 27% | – | Replay |
| 4 Apr 2025 | 228 | 135 | -0.21% | -0.68% | $33.1 · 77% | – | Replay |
| 7 Mar 2025 | 151 | 160 | +0.28% | +0.16% | $24.7 · 54% | – | Replay |
| 7 Feb 2025 | 143 | 170 | -0.02% | +0.39% | $22.3 · 58% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 256 | 160 | -0.39% | +0.94% | $43.5 · 122% | yes | Replay |
| 6 Dec 2024 | 227 | 200 | +0.03% | -0.22% | $19.8 · 48% | yes | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 12 | 113 | +0.23% | +0.05% | $13.7 · 43% | – | Replay |
| 4 Oct 2024 | 254 | 140 | -0.54% | -0.21% | $25.9 · 79% | – | Replay |
| 6 Sept 2024 | 142 | 160 | +0.40% | -0.27% | $23.3 · 71% | yes | Replay |
| 2 Aug 2024 | 114 | 175 | +0.79% | +0.37% | $23.1 · 57% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jul 2024 | 206 | 190 | +0.16% | +0.36% | $32.4 · 104% | – | Replay |
| 7 Jun 2024 | 272 | 185 | -0.75% | -0.38% | $22.4 · 63% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2024 | 175 | 243 | +0.88% | +0.18% | $25.9 · 56% | – | Replay |
| 5 Apr 2024 | 303 | 200 | -0.50% | +0.00% | $19.1 · 62% | – | Replay |
| 8 Mar 2024 | 275 | 200 | +0.63% | +0.20% | $29.5 · 132% | – | Replay |
| 2 Feb 2024 | 353 | 180 | -0.68% | -1.10% | $25.9 · 102% | – | Replay |
| 5 Jan 2024 | 216 | 170 | -0.55% | +0.40% | $25.3 · 102% | yes | Replay |
| 8 Dec 2023 | 199 | 180 | -0.56% | -1.07% | $29.5 · 106% | – | Replay |
| 3 Nov 2023 | 150 | 180 | +0.54% | -0.04% | $18.3 · 70% | – | Replay |
| 6 Oct 2023 | 336 | 170 | -0.29% | +0.25% | $14.7 · 83% | yes | Replay |
| 1 Sept 2023 | 187 | 170 | +0.28% | +0.15% | $10.7 · 64% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the NFP page.
Frequently asked questions
How does Gold react to NFP?
Across 118 NFP releases since 5 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, Gold's first hour averaged 72% of a normal day's range, about $54.6 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 17% of the time.
Does Gold go up or down after NFP?
Neither reliably on its own: Gold was higher an hour after NFP on 55% of releases. When NFP came in above forecast (69 times), Gold was higher an hour later 41% of the time, down 0.21% on average. When NFP came in below forecast (46 times), Gold was higher an hour later 78% of the time, up 0.33% on average.
How much does Gold move on NFP?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was $54.6. On 19% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 2 Sept 2016: $26.6, 173% of a normal day.
When is the next NFP?
Friday, 4 December 2026 at 08:30 New York.
