How Gold reacts to FOMC
Every FOMC rate decision release since 14 Dec 2022 measured on Gold's 1-minute chart: 32 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 32 releasesAcross 32 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, Gold's first hour averaged 68% of a normal day's range, about $58.6 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 25% of the time.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 17 Sept 2025: $64.5, 143% of a normal day.
Every FOMC release on Gold
32 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4 | – | -0.16% | -0.21% | $44.3 · 65% | – | Replay |
| 16 Sept 2026 | 4 | 4 | -0.67% | -2.34% | $116 · 105% | – | Replay |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.82% | +1.57% | $67.7 · 76% | – | Replay |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -1.73% | -2.15% | $112 · 99% | – | Replay |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.13% | -0.19% | $35 · 29% | – | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.18% | -0.77% | $48.3 · 36% | – | Replay |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.09% | +0.81% | $63.1 · 65% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.31% | +0.57% | $41.2 · 54% | – | Replay |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 4 | 4 | -0.12% | -0.64% | $67 · 58% | – | Replay |
| 17 Sept 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.09% | -0.98% | $64.5 · 143% | yes | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.19% | -0.74% | $26.2 · 58% | – | Replay |
| 18 Jun 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.04% | -0.19% | $18.2 · 30% | yes | Replay |
| 7 May 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.10% | -0.04% | $23.5 · 27% | – | Replay |
| 19 Mar 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.22% | +0.54% | $20.7 · 50% | – | Replay |
| 29 Jan 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.23% | +0.18% | $14.4 · 42% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.51% | -1.22% | $33.3 · 81% | – | Replay |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.16% | -0.06% | $10.9 · 32% | – | Replay |
| 18 Sept 2024 | 5 | 5.25 | +0.67% | +0.29% | $33 · 111% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jul 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.13% | +0.29% | $14.1 · 39% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.20% | -0.51% | $16.2 · 42% | – | Replay |
| 1 May 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.26% | +1.12% | $33.7 · 75% | – | Replay |
| 20 Mar 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.71% | +1.17% | $27.3 · 113% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jan 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.03% | -0.08% | $12 · 50% | yes | Replay |
| 13 Dec 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.94% | +1.62% | $36.3 · 128% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.08% | -0.16% | $13.1 · 51% | yes | Replay |
| 20 Sept 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.24% | -0.29% | $8.2 · 56% | – | Replay |
| 26 Jul 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.02% | +0.40% | $13.9 · 75% | – | Replay |
| 14 Jun 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.57% | -0.20% | $14.9 · 59% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.29% | -0.06% | $19.6 · 65% | – | Replay |
| 22 Mar 2023 | 5 | 5 | +0.83% | +1.24% | $32.8 · 109% | – | Replay |
| 1 Feb 2023 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.12% | +0.84% | $23.7 · 92% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Dec 2022 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.40% | -0.26% | $14.8 · 63% | – | Replay |
Frequently asked questions
How does Gold react to FOMC?
Across 32 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, Gold's first hour averaged 68% of a normal day's range, about $58.6 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 25% of the time.
Does Gold go up or down after FOMC?
Neither reliably on its own: Gold was higher an hour after FOMC on 41% of releases.
How much does Gold move on FOMC?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was $58.6. On 19% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 17 Sept 2025: $64.5, 143% of a normal day.
When is the next FOMC?
Wednesday, 9 December 2026 at 14:00 New York.
