How Markets React to FOMC
Every FOMC rate decision release, measured across gold, indices, forex and oil from 1-minute bars: the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes, what it swept, and whether the first move held. A new page lands the morning after each release.
First hour after FOMC, on average
24 releases so far. The first-hour range as a share of each market's normal full day.
| Market | First hour vs a normal day | Reversed within the hour | Swept a key level |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 91% | 7 of 24 | 7 of 24 |
| AUDUSD | 85% | 6 of 24 | 9 of 24 |
| GBPUSD | 82% | 5 of 24 | 7 of 24 |
| S&P 500 | 78% | 5 of 24 | 4 of 24 |
| US30 | 76% | 4 of 24 | 3 of 24 |
| USDJPY | 68% | 6 of 24 | 9 of 24 |
| Gold | 67% | 6 of 24 | 8 of 24 |
| Silver | 65% | 4 of 23 | 7 of 23 |
| NAS100 | 62% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 24 |
| Bitcoin | 49% | 5 of 23 | 4 of 23 |
| Ethereum | 46% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 23 |
| Oil | 25% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 24 |
Every FOMC release
Frequently asked questions
Which market moves most on FOMC?
Across 24 FOMC releases measured, EURUSD moved most in the first hour relative to its normal day (91% of an average day's range), then AUDUSD (85%) and GBPUSD (82%).
Does the first move after FOMC hold?
EURUSD: reversed within the hour 7 of 24 times; AUDUSD: reversed within the hour 6 of 24 times; GBPUSD: reversed within the hour 5 of 24 times; S&P 500: reversed within the hour 5 of 24 times.
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