How NAS100 reacts to FOMC
Every FOMC rate decision release since 14 Dec 2022 measured on NAS100's 1-minute chart: 32 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 32 releasesAcross 32 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, NAS100's first hour averaged 67% of a normal day's range, about 243.8 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 25% of the time.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 18 Dec 2024: 381.8 pts, 146% of a normal day.
Every FOMC release on NAS100
32 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4 | – | -0.10% | +0.14% | 223.3 pts · 41% | yes | Replay |
| 16 Sept 2026 | 4 | 4 | +0.14% | -0.84% | 317.5 pts · 84% | yes | Replay |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.43% | +1.20% | 387.8 pts · 61% | – | Replay |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -1.28% | -0.63% | 449.8 pts · 67% | – | Replay |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.17% | +0.17% | 143 pts · 33% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.01% | -0.55% | 175.3 pts · 35% | yes | Replay |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.14% | -0.04% | 97.5 pts · 28% | – | Replay |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.18% | +0.82% | 232.3 pts · 51% | – | Replay |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 4 | 4 | -0.10% | -0.27% | 240.8 pts · 58% | – | Replay |
| 17 Sept 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.18% | -0.26% | 277.3 pts · 98% | yes | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.04% | -0.55% | 189.3 pts · 86% | – | Replay |
| 18 Jun 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.20% | -0.51% | 191.5 pts · 54% | – | Replay |
| 7 May 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.12% | +0.35% | 224.3 pts · 31% | yes | Replay |
| 19 Mar 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.11% | +1.11% | 274 pts · 53% | – | Replay |
| 29 Jan 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.18% | +0.35% | 191.3 pts · 47% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.55% | -1.71% | 381.8 pts · 146% | – | Replay |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.01% | +0.25% | 73.8 pts · 25% | – | Replay |
| 18 Sept 2024 | 5 | 5.25 | +0.60% | +0.10% | 270 pts · 73% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jul 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.10% | +0.63% | 185.3 pts · 53% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.16% | -0.01% | 93.5 pts · 41% | – | Replay |
| 1 May 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.20% | +1.61% | 293.5 pts · 86% | – | Replay |
| 20 Mar 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.65% | +0.80% | 182 pts · 65% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jan 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.14% | -0.04% | 175 pts · 76% | – | Replay |
| 13 Dec 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.59% | +1.09% | 202.3 pts · 105% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.04% | +0.36% | 119 pts · 43% | – | Replay |
| 20 Sept 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.47% | -0.43% | 106 pts · 44% | – | Replay |
| 26 Jul 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.09% | +0.48% | 149.8 pts · 74% | – | Replay |
| 14 Jun 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.68% | -0.01% | 192.3 pts · 84% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.15% | +0.17% | 144 pts · 72% | yes | Replay |
| 22 Mar 2023 | 5 | 5 | +0.70% | -0.03% | 205.3 pts · 78% | – | Replay |
| 1 Feb 2023 | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.03% | +1.70% | 331 pts · 128% | – | Replay |
| 14 Dec 2022 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -1.24% | -1.82% | 327 pts · 126% | – | Replay |
Frequently asked questions
How does NAS100 react to FOMC?
Across 32 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, NAS100's first hour averaged 67% of a normal day's range, about 243.8 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 25% of the time.
Does NAS100 go up or down after FOMC?
Neither reliably on its own: NAS100 was higher an hour after FOMC on 53% of releases.
How much does NAS100 move on FOMC?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 243.8 pts. On 13% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 18 Dec 2024: 381.8 pts, 146% of a normal day.
When is the next FOMC?
Wednesday, 9 December 2026 at 14:00 New York.
