How US30 reacts to FOMC
Every FOMC rate decision release since 14 Dec 2022 measured on US30's 1-minute chart: 32 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 32 releasesAcross 32 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, US30's first hour averaged 78% of a normal day's range, about 378.2 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 16% of the time.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 18 Dec 2024: 725 pts, 197% of a normal day.
Every FOMC release on US30
32 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4 | – | -0.09% | -0.18% | 239 pts · 40% | – | Replay |
| 16 Sept 2026 | 4 | 4 | -0.13% | -1.16% | 682 pts · 133% | – | Replay |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.15% | +0.42% | 406 pts · 70% | – | Replay |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.74% | -0.58% | 402.5 pts · 55% | – | Replay |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.13% | -0.00% | 142.5 pts · 23% | – | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.01% | -0.56% | 320 pts · 39% | – | Replay |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.05% | -0.05% | 238 pts · 42% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.17% | +0.77% | 389 pts · 67% | – | Replay |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 4 | 4 | -0.04% | -0.38% | 422 pts · 71% | – | Replay |
| 17 Sept 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.51% | -0.24% | 600 pts · 145% | – | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.00% | -0.64% | 391 pts · 95% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Jun 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.04% | -0.36% | 306 pts · 55% | – | Replay |
| 7 May 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.07% | +0.37% | 385 pts · 33% | yes | Replay |
| 19 Mar 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.11% | +0.84% | 522 pts · 70% | – | Replay |
| 29 Jan 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.25% | +0.02% | 257 pts · 51% | – | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.39% | -1.58% | 725 pts · 197% | – | Replay |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.03% | +0.10% | 142 pts · 29% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Sept 2024 | 5 | 5.25 | +0.51% | +0.08% | 487 pts · 99% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jul 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.05% | +0.39% | 268 pts · 60% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.12% | -0.10% | 149 pts · 39% | – | Replay |
| 1 May 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.04% | +0.98% | 418 pts · 83% | – | Replay |
| 20 Mar 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.47% | +0.78% | 339 pts · 92% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jan 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.11% | -0.19% | 196 pts · 59% | – | Replay |
| 13 Dec 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.52% | +1.11% | 435 pts · 186% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.07% | +0.24% | 184 pts · 44% | – | Replay |
| 20 Sept 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.34% | -0.27% | 170 pts · 51% | – | Replay |
| 26 Jul 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.03% | +0.34% | 229 pts · 78% | – | Replay |
| 14 Jun 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.49% | -0.33% | 271.5 pts · 80% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.09% | -0.12% | 282 pts · 87% | – | Replay |
| 22 Mar 2023 | 5 | 5 | +0.51% | +0.02% | 342 pts · 63% | – | Replay |
| 1 Feb 2023 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.01% | +0.80% | 594 pts · 130% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Dec 2022 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.74% | -1.35% | 670 pts · 138% | – | Replay |
Frequently asked questions
How does US30 react to FOMC?
Across 32 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, US30's first hour averaged 78% of a normal day's range, about 378.2 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 16% of the time.
Does US30 go up or down after FOMC?
Neither reliably on its own: US30 was higher an hour after FOMC on 47% of releases.
How much does US30 move on FOMC?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 378.2 pts. On 19% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 18 Dec 2024: 725 pts, 197% of a normal day.
When is the next FOMC?
Wednesday, 9 December 2026 at 14:00 New York.
