How S&P 500 reacts to FOMC
Every FOMC rate decision release since 14 Dec 2022 measured on S&P 500's 1-minute chart: 32 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 32 releasesAcross 32 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, S&P 500's first hour averaged 79% of a normal day's range, about 52.8 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 19% of the time.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 18 Dec 2024: 97.3 pts, 218% of a normal day.
Every FOMC release on S&P 500
32 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4 | – | -0.09% | -0.01% | 38 pts · 47% | – | Replay |
| 16 Sept 2026 | 4 | 4 | +0.02% | -0.86% | 76.8 pts · 121% | yes | Replay |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.27% | +0.75% | 68 pts · 85% | – | Replay |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.97% | -0.63% | 76.3 pts · 76% | – | Replay |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.15% | -0.01% | 23.3 pts · 26% | – | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.02% | -0.52% | 42.5 pts · 39% | – | Replay |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.06% | -0.03% | 21.5 pts · 33% | – | Replay |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.17% | +0.74% | 53.8 pts · 61% | – | Replay |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 4 | 4 | -0.05% | -0.30% | 62.3 pts · 75% | – | Replay |
| 17 Sept 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.29% | -0.30% | 75.5 pts · 132% | yes | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.04% | -0.61% | 51.8 pts · 104% | – | Replay |
| 18 Jun 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.14% | -0.40% | 44 pts · 54% | – | Replay |
| 7 May 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.08% | +0.31% | 53 pts · 31% | yes | Replay |
| 19 Mar 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.08% | +0.91% | 64 pts · 57% | – | Replay |
| 29 Jan 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.23% | +0.14% | 41.3 pts · 51% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.46% | -1.52% | 97.3 pts · 218% | – | Replay |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.01% | +0.21% | 21.3 pts · 34% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Sept 2024 | 5 | 5.25 | +0.53% | +0.10% | 70.8 pts · 96% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jul 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.11% | +0.51% | 41.5 pts · 65% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.13% | -0.02% | 22.5 pts · 46% | – | Replay |
| 1 May 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.13% | +1.27% | 67.3 pts · 90% | – | Replay |
| 20 Mar 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.52% | +0.68% | 42 pts · 75% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jan 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.13% | -0.19% | 34.3 pts · 76% | – | Replay |
| 13 Dec 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.59% | +1.18% | 58.5 pts · 170% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.07% | +0.31% | 27.3 pts · 43% | – | Replay |
| 20 Sept 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.38% | -0.41% | 23 pts · 48% | – | Replay |
| 26 Jul 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.03% | +0.38% | 33 pts · 91% | – | Replay |
| 14 Jun 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.56% | -0.21% | 37.8 pts · 82% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.14% | +0.00% | 36 pts · 78% | – | Replay |
| 22 Mar 2023 | 5 | 5 | +0.61% | +0.01% | 51.5 pts · 70% | – | Replay |
| 1 Feb 2023 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.03% | +1.10% | 80.5 pts · 128% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Dec 2022 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.95% | -1.51% | 89.3 pts · 133% | – | Replay |
Frequently asked questions
How does S&P 500 react to FOMC?
Across 32 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, S&P 500's first hour averaged 79% of a normal day's range, about 52.8 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 19% of the time.
Does S&P 500 go up or down after FOMC?
Neither reliably on its own: S&P 500 was higher an hour after FOMC on 47% of releases.
How much does S&P 500 move on FOMC?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 52.8 pts. On 22% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 18 Dec 2024: 97.3 pts, 218% of a normal day.
When is the next FOMC?
Wednesday, 9 December 2026 at 14:00 New York.
