How Bitcoin reacts to FOMC
Every FOMC rate decision release since 14 Dec 2022 measured on Bitcoin's 1-minute chart: 31 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 31 releasesAcross 31 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, Bitcoin's first hour averaged 53% of a normal day's range, about $1,356 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 26% of the time.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 14 Dec 2022: $640, 160% of a normal day.
Every FOMC release on Bitcoin
31 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sept 2026 | 4 | 4 | +0.45% | -0.17% | $1,588 · 68% | – | Replay |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.17% | +0.37% | $908 · 59% | – | Replay |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -1.85% | -0.90% | $1,308 · 54% | – | Replay |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.42% | -0.88% | $1,337 · 58% | – | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.39% | -0.70% | $1,053 · 34% | yes | Replay |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.29% | -0.16% | $713 · 31% | – | Replay |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.33% | +0.49% | $1,292 · 35% | yes | Replay |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 4 | 4 | -0.44% | -0.96% | $2,830 · 61% | – | Replay |
| 17 Sept 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.63% | -0.24% | $1,613 · 69% | – | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.18% | -1.09% | $1,528 · 51% | – | Replay |
| 18 Jun 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.25% | -0.68% | $1,120 · 39% | – | Replay |
| 7 May 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.21% | +0.30% | $987 · 42% | – | Replay |
| 19 Mar 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.35% | +1.64% | $2,292 · 46% | yes | Replay |
| 29 Jan 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.49% | +0.69% | $2,599 · 60% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.85% | -1.90% | $1,988 · 52% | – | Replay |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.58% | -0.10% | $705 · 30% | – | Replay |
| 18 Sept 2024 | 5 | 5.25 | +0.75% | +1.03% | $1,559 · 69% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jul 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.11% | -0.24% | $596 · 24% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -1.01% | -1.39% | $1,233 · 63% | – | Replay |
| 1 May 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.74% | +2.59% | $2,137 · 64% | – | Replay |
| 20 Mar 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.94% | +2.04% | $1,513 · 37% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jan 2024 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.07% | -0.41% | $511 · 31% | yes | Replay |
| 13 Dec 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.63% | +1.44% | $759 · 59% | – | Replay |
| 1 Nov 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.01% | +0.20% | $305 · 26% | yes | Replay |
| 20 Sept 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -0.11% | -0.11% | $221 · 32% | – | Replay |
| 26 Jul 2023 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.21% | +0.37% | $269 · 36% | – | Replay |
| 14 Jun 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.51% | -0.43% | $345 · 40% | – | Replay |
| 3 May 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.21% | -0.44% | $530 · 49% | – | Replay |
| 22 Mar 2023 | 5 | 5 | +0.88% | -1.71% | $1,087 · 86% | yes | Replay |
| 1 Feb 2023 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.30% | +1.33% | $684 · 72% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Dec 2022 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -1.35% | -2.36% | $640 · 160% | – | Replay |
Frequently asked questions
How does Bitcoin react to FOMC?
Across 31 FOMC releases since 14 Dec 2022, measured from 1-minute data, Bitcoin's first hour averaged 53% of a normal day's range, about $1,356 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 26% of the time.
Does Bitcoin go up or down after FOMC?
Neither reliably on its own: Bitcoin was higher an hour after FOMC on 39% of releases.
How much does Bitcoin move on FOMC?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was $1,356. On 3% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 14 Dec 2022: $640, 160% of a normal day.
When is the next FOMC?
Wednesday, 9 December 2026 at 14:00 New York.