How S&P 500 reacts to CPI
Every US CPI (inflation) release since 15 Jul 2016 measured on S&P 500's 1-minute chart: 120 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 120 releasesAcross 120 CPI releases since 15 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, S&P 500's first hour averaged 49% of a normal day's range, about 38.5 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 23% of the time.
When CPI came in above forecast (41 times), S&P 500 was higher an hour later 41% of the time, down 0.42% on average. When CPI came in below forecast (41 times), S&P 500 was higher an hour later 90% of the time, up 0.34% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 13 Sept 2022: 146.5 pts, 202% of a normal day.
Every CPI release on S&P 500
120 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.56% | -0.69% | 58.5 pts · 78% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.13% | +0.15% | 63 pts · 103% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.07% | +0.15% | 33 pts · 36% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.41% | +0.24% | 55 pts · 63% | – | Replay |
| 10 Jun 2026 | 4.2 | 4.2 | +0.13% | +0.22% | 48.3 pts · 52% | – | Replay |
| 12 May 2026 | 3.8 | 3.7 | +0.02% | +0.09% | 22.5 pts · 29% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2026 | 3.3 | 3.3 | -0.01% | +0.02% | 19 pts · 15% | yes | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2026 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.21% | +0.19% | 27 pts · 27% | – | Replay |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.35% | +0.15% | 31.5 pts · 51% | – | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 2.7 | 3.1 | +0.10% | +0.45% | 32.3 pts · 40% | – | Replay |
| 24 Oct 2025 | 3 | 3.1 | +0.36% | +0.38% | 44.8 pts · 54% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2025 | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.13% | +0.04% | 26.8 pts · 47% | – | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2025 | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.46% | +0.32% | 39.8 pts · 62% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jul 2025 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.15% | +0.15% | 15.3 pts · 25% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jun 2025 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.40% | +0.22% | 35.5 pts · 47% | – | Replay |
| 13 May 2025 | 2.3 | 2.4 | +0.12% | +0.05% | 24 pts · 22% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2025 | 2.4 | 2.6 | +0.30% | -0.19% | 63 pts · 35% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Mar 2025 | 2.8 | 2.9 | +0.24% | +0.20% | 52 pts · 53% | – | Replay |
| 12 Feb 2025 | 3 | 2.9 | -1.00% | -1.02% | 77.3 pts · 100% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jan 2025 | 2.9 | 2.9 | +1.06% | +1.02% | 78.5 pts · 86% | – | Replay |
| 11 Dec 2024 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.20% | +0.33% | 27.3 pts · 53% | – | Replay |
| 13 Nov 2024 | 2.6 | 2.6 | +0.36% | +0.21% | 28.8 pts · 46% | – | Replay |
| 10 Oct 2024 | 2.4 | 2.3 | -0.20% | -0.19% | 29.3 pts · 49% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2024 | 2.5 | 2.6 | -0.39% | +0.04% | 39 pts · 55% | – | Replay |
| 14 Aug 2024 | 2.9 | 3 | -0.20% | +0.06% | 25.3 pts · 23% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jul 2024 | 3 | 3.1 | +0.32% | +0.07% | 27.3 pts · 62% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 3.3 | 3.4 | +0.49% | +0.66% | 46 pts · 94% | – | Replay |
| 15 May 2024 | 3.4 | 3.4 | +0.51% | +0.43% | 32.4 pts · 53% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2024 | 3.5 | 3.4 | -1.26% | -1.36% | 96 pts · 179% | – | Replay |
| 12 Mar 2024 | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.23% | +0.17% | 45.5 pts · 87% | – | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2024 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -0.73% | -0.97% | 60.5 pts · 135% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jan 2024 | 3.4 | 3.2 | -0.16% | -0.06% | 34.5 pts · 72% | – | Replay |
| 12 Dec 2023 | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.14% | -0.36% | 27 pts · 72% | – | Replay |
| 14 Nov 2023 | 3.2 | 3.3 | +1.00% | +1.27% | 70 pts · 121% | – | Replay |
| 12 Oct 2023 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.35% | -0.32% | 21 pts · 34% | – | Replay |
| 13 Sept 2023 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.02% | +0.07% | 24.3 pts · 51% | yes | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the CPI page.
Frequently asked questions
How does S&P 500 react to CPI?
Across 120 CPI releases since 15 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, S&P 500's first hour averaged 49% of a normal day's range, about 38.5 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 23% of the time.
Does S&P 500 go up or down after CPI?
Neither reliably on its own: S&P 500 was higher an hour after CPI on 68% of releases. When CPI came in above forecast (41 times), S&P 500 was higher an hour later 41% of the time, down 0.42% on average. When CPI came in below forecast (41 times), S&P 500 was higher an hour later 90% of the time, up 0.34% on average.
How much does S&P 500 move on CPI?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 38.5 pts. On 8% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 13 Sept 2022: 146.5 pts, 202% of a normal day.
When is the next CPI?
Tuesday, 10 November 2026 at 08:30 New York. Consensus 3.9%.
