How Gold reacts to PPI
Every US PPI release since 12 Aug 2016 measured on Gold's 1-minute chart: 118 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 118 releasesAcross 118 PPI releases since 12 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, Gold's first hour averaged 38% of a normal day's range, about $37.9 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 27% of the time.
When PPI came in above forecast (57 times), Gold was higher an hour later 46% of the time, down 0.02% on average. When PPI came in below forecast (41 times), Gold was higher an hour later 63% of the time, up 0.11% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 11 Aug 2020: $38.6, 109% of a normal day.
Every PPI release on Gold
118 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -0.16% | +0.04% | $38.3 · 47% | – | Replay |
| 10 Sept 2026 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.54% | -0.17% | $50 · 46% | – | Replay |
| 13 Aug 2026 | 0.2 | 0.2 | +0.01% | -0.13% | $22.9 · 25% | yes | Replay |
| 15 Jul 2026 | -0.1 | 0 | +0.46% | +0.42% | $35.6 · 33% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jun 2026 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.21% | +0.18% | $28.9 · 26% | yes | Replay |
| 13 May 2026 | 1.1 | 0.5 | -0.01% | +0.07% | $20 · 19% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Apr 2026 | 0.8 | 1.1 | +0.09% | +0.32% | $31.6 · 18% | – | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.30% | -0.85% | $68.9 · 51% | – | Replay |
| 27 Feb 2026 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -0.32% | -0.10% | $30.6 · 14% | – | Replay |
| 30 Jan 2026 | 0.4 | 0.2 | +0.26% | +0.82% | $97.3 · 77% | – | Replay |
| 14 Jan 2026 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.08% | +0.07% | $15.4 · 17% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Jan 2026 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.01% | -0.07% | $15.4 · 17% | – | Replay |
| 25 Nov 2025 | 0.6 | 0.3 | +0.12% | -0.20% | $18.7 · 20% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Sept 2025 | -0.2 | 0.3 | +0.04% | -0.05% | $18.7 · 43% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Aug 2025 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -0.05% | -0.22% | $15.5 · 29% | – | Replay |
| 16 Jul 2025 | 0.2 | 0.2 | +0.02% | +0.00% | $8.7 · 19% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2025 | 0.3 | 0.2 | +0.05% | -0.01% | $15.5 · 24% | – | Replay |
| 15 May 2025 | -0.3 | 0.2 | +0.09% | +0.29% | $20.2 · 23% | – | Replay |
| 11 Apr 2025 | -0.1 | 0.2 | +0.07% | +0.14% | $14.4 · 24% | – | Replay |
| 13 Mar 2025 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.01% | +0.07% | $9.9 · 23% | yes | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2025 | 0.6 | 0.3 | +0.07% | -0.10% | $13.3 · 33% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Dec 2024 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.06% | -0.99% | $34.4 · 86% | – | Replay |
| 14 Nov 2024 | 0.3 | 0.2 | +0.02% | +0.30% | $12.7 · 32% | – | Replay |
| 11 Oct 2024 | 0.3 | 0.1 | +0.06% | +0.04% | $9.7 · 30% | – | Replay |
| 12 Sept 2024 | 0.3 | 0.1 | +0.15% | +0.76% | $25.8 · 81% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jul 2024 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.23% | -0.09% | $14.7 · 49% | – | Replay |
| 13 Jun 2024 | 0 | 0.1 | +0.59% | +0.51% | $22 · 58% | – | Replay |
| 14 May 2024 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.10% | +0.21% | $16.5 · 43% | yes | Replay |
| 11 Apr 2024 | 0.1 | 0.3 | +0.29% | +0.31% | $13 · 38% | – | Replay |
| 14 Mar 2024 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.15% | -0.17% | $9.9 · 42% | – | Replay |
| 16 Feb 2024 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.53% | -0.45% | $11.7 · 52% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jan 2024 | -0.1 | 0.1 | +0.27% | +0.45% | $10.8 · 42% | – | Replay |
| 13 Dec 2023 | 0.1 | 0.1 | +0.20% | +0.08% | $5.6 · 20% | – | Replay |
| 15 Nov 2023 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.17% | -0.41% | $13.3 · 52% | – | Replay |
| 11 Oct 2023 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.02% | +0.04% | $11.4 · 63% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Sept 2023 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -0.28% | -0.29% | $7.6 · 51% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the PPI page.
Frequently asked questions
How does Gold react to PPI?
Across 118 PPI releases since 12 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, Gold's first hour averaged 38% of a normal day's range, about $37.9 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 27% of the time.
Does Gold go up or down after PPI?
Neither reliably on its own: Gold was higher an hour after PPI on 54% of releases. When PPI came in above forecast (57 times), Gold was higher an hour later 46% of the time, down 0.02% on average. When PPI came in below forecast (41 times), Gold was higher an hour later 63% of the time, up 0.11% on average.
How much does Gold move on PPI?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was $37.9. On 1% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 11 Aug 2020: $38.6, 109% of a normal day.
When is the next PPI?
Friday, 13 November 2026 at 08:30 New York. Consensus 0.4%.
