How Gold reacts to PCE
Every PCE inflation release since 2 Aug 2016 measured on Gold's 1-minute chart: 109 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 109 releasesAcross 109 PCE releases since 2 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, Gold's first hour averaged 37% of a normal day's range, about $32.7 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 31% of the time.
When PCE came in above forecast (24 times), Gold was higher an hour later 50% of the time, down 0.04% on average. When PCE came in below forecast (25 times), Gold was higher an hour later 64% of the time, up 0.13% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 29 Feb 2024: $20.4, 103% of a normal day.
Every PCE release on Gold
109 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | 0.4 | – | +0.01% | +0.02% | $16.1 · 24% | – | Replay |
| 30 Sept 2026 | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.47% | -0.03% | $28.5 · 29% | – | Replay |
| 26 Aug 2026 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.24% | -0.43% | $36.7 · 35% | – | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 0.1 | 0.2 | +0.63% | +0.70% | $37 · 42% | – | Replay |
| 25 Jun 2026 | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.17% | +0.94% | $51.6 · 42% | – | Replay |
| 28 May 2026 | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.12% | +1.03% | $51.5 · 49% | – | Replay |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.07% | +0.06% | $23.6 · 21% | yes | Replay |
| 9 Apr 2026 | 0.4 | 0.4 | +0.11% | +0.29% | $23.9 · 13% | – | Replay |
| 13 Mar 2026 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.02% | -0.14% | $15.2 · 11% | – | Replay |
| 20 Feb 2026 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.06% | +0.25% | $31 · 13% | yes | Replay |
| 22 Jan 2026 | 0.2 | – | +0.03% | +0.77% | $50.4 · 54% | – | Replay |
| 5 Dec 2025 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.07% | +0.06% | $26.3 · 33% | yes | Replay |
| 26 Sept 2025 | 0.2 | 0.2 | +0.15% | +0.21% | $20.8 · 40% | – | Replay |
| 29 Aug 2025 | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.17% | +0.25% | $13 · 30% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jul 2025 | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.07% | +0.04% | $7.5 · 16% | – | Replay |
| 27 Jun 2025 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.22% | -0.72% | $25.6 · 47% | – | Replay |
| 30 May 2025 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.05% | -0.24% | $15.1 · 19% | – | Replay |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 0 | 0.1 | -0.15% | +0.06% | $22.7 · 25% | – | Replay |
| 28 Mar 2025 | 0.4 | 0.3 | +0.20% | +0.05% | $12.3 · 32% | – | Replay |
| 28 Feb 2025 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.04% | -0.39% | $16.4 · 36% | – | Replay |
| 31 Jan 2025 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.09% | +0.14% | $7.8 · 22% | yes | Replay |
| 20 Dec 2024 | 0.1 | 0.2 | +0.29% | +0.64% | $18.7 · 43% | – | Replay |
| 27 Nov 2024 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.36% | -0.31% | $16.5 · 36% | – | Replay |
| 31 Oct 2024 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.03% | -0.35% | $13.9 · 46% | – | Replay |
| 27 Sept 2024 | 0.1 | 0.2 | +0.19% | +0.03% | $10.3 · 32% | – | Replay |
| 30 Aug 2024 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.20% | -0.31% | $11.9 · 30% | – | Replay |
| 26 Jul 2024 | 0.2 | 0.1 | +0.07% | +0.24% | $9.1 · 27% | – | Replay |
| 28 Jun 2024 | 0.1 | 0.1 | +0.15% | -0.08% | $9.5 · 27% | – | Replay |
| 31 May 2024 | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.18% | +0.42% | $16.8 · 49% | – | Replay |
| 26 Apr 2024 | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.17% | -0.03% | $11.4 · 24% | – | Replay |
| 29 Feb 2024 | 0.4 | 0.4 | +0.38% | +0.80% | $20.4 · 103% | – | Replay |
| 26 Jan 2024 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.12% | -0.04% | $9.5 · 38% | – | Replay |
| 22 Dec 2023 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.08% | +0.29% | $12.3 · 41% | yes | Replay |
| 30 Nov 2023 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.09% | -0.19% | $14.9 · 69% | – | Replay |
| 27 Oct 2023 | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.07% | -0.10% | $9.8 · 39% | yes | Replay |
| 29 Sept 2023 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.05% | +0.25% | $12.4 · 80% | yes | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the PCE page.
Frequently asked questions
How does Gold react to PCE?
Across 109 PCE releases since 2 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, Gold's first hour averaged 37% of a normal day's range, about $32.7 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 31% of the time.
Does Gold go up or down after PCE?
Neither reliably on its own: Gold was higher an hour after PCE on 54% of releases. When PCE came in above forecast (24 times), Gold was higher an hour later 50% of the time, down 0.04% on average. When PCE came in below forecast (25 times), Gold was higher an hour later 64% of the time, up 0.13% on average.
How much does Gold move on PCE?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was $32.7. On 1% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 29 Feb 2024: $20.4, 103% of a normal day.
When is the next PCE?
Wednesday, 25 November 2026 at 08:30 New York.
