How Bitcoin reacts to CPI
Every US CPI (inflation) release since 13 Jul 2022 measured on Bitcoin's 1-minute chart: 51 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 51 releasesAcross 51 CPI releases since 13 Jul 2022, measured from 1-minute data, Bitcoin's first hour averaged 59% of a normal day's range, about $1,059 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 8% of the time.
When CPI came in above forecast (14 times), Bitcoin was higher an hour later 14% of the time, down 1.42% on average. When CPI came in below forecast (22 times), Bitcoin was higher an hour later 73% of the time, up 0.80% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 14 Mar 2023: $1,858, 195% of a normal day.
Every CPI release on Bitcoin
51 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -1.32% | -1.47% | $1,604 · 79% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | +0.11% | +0.55% | $2,075 · 87% | – | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.45% | -0.72% | $580 · 42% | – | Replay |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.86% | +1.60% | $1,237 · 58% | – | Replay |
| 10 Jun 2026 | 4.2 | 4.2 | +0.69% | +0.63% | $809 · 33% | – | Replay |
| 12 May 2026 | 3.8 | 3.7 | +0.04% | -0.20% | $380 · 20% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2026 | 3.3 | 3.3 | +0.18% | +0.17% | $415 · 17% | – | Replay |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.22% | +1.14% | $1,226 · 38% | yes | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2026 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.19% | -0.04% | $510 · 11% | – | Replay |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.28% | +0.32% | $819 · 41% | – | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 2.7 | 3.1 | +0.38% | +1.00% | $1,840 · 53% | – | Replay |
| 24 Oct 2025 | 3 | 3.1 | +0.44% | +0.21% | $1,210 · 26% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2025 | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.39% | -0.58% | $1,070 · 36% | – | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2025 | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.32% | +0.61% | $816 · 32% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jul 2025 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.42% | +0.67% | $1,716 · 70% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jun 2025 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.38% | +0.49% | $651 · 23% | – | Replay |
| 13 May 2025 | 2.3 | 2.4 | +0.30% | +0.22% | $628 · 24% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2025 | 2.4 | 2.6 | -0.53% | -0.78% | $929 · 26% | – | Replay |
| 12 Mar 2025 | 2.8 | 2.9 | +0.76% | -0.03% | $1,265 · 24% | – | Replay |
| 12 Feb 2025 | 3 | 2.9 | -1.78% | -1.88% | $2,467 · 62% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jan 2025 | 2.9 | 2.9 | +1.20% | +1.48% | $2,174 · 64% | – | Replay |
| 11 Dec 2024 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.42% | +0.30% | $534 · 14% | – | Replay |
| 13 Nov 2024 | 2.6 | 2.6 | +0.21% | +1.73% | $1,709 · 55% | – | Replay |
| 10 Oct 2024 | 2.4 | 2.3 | -0.61% | -0.20% | $568 · 31% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2024 | 2.5 | 2.6 | -0.43% | +0.01% | $887 · 37% | – | Replay |
| 14 Aug 2024 | 2.9 | 3 | -0.90% | -1.45% | $1,199 · 35% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jul 2024 | 3 | 3.1 | +0.57% | +0.13% | $1,224 · 53% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 3.3 | 3.4 | +1.73% | +1.73% | $1,640 · 83% | – | Replay |
| 15 May 2024 | 3.4 | 3.4 | +1.69% | +2.63% | $1,671 · 66% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2024 | 3.5 | 3.4 | -1.15% | -1.85% | $1,412 · 46% | – | Replay |
| 12 Mar 2024 | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.64% | +0.91% | $837 · 26% | – | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2024 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -0.39% | -1.59% | $1,498 · 110% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jan 2024 | 3.4 | 3.2 | +0.08% | +1.57% | $1,117 · 59% | – | Replay |
| 12 Dec 2023 | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.06% | -0.30% | $370 · 28% | – | Replay |
| 14 Nov 2023 | 3.2 | 3.3 | +0.64% | +0.47% | $291 · 28% | – | Replay |
| 12 Oct 2023 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.10% | -0.22% | $121 · 19% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the CPI page.
Frequently asked questions
How does Bitcoin react to CPI?
Across 51 CPI releases since 13 Jul 2022, measured from 1-minute data, Bitcoin's first hour averaged 59% of a normal day's range, about $1,059 over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 8% of the time.
Does Bitcoin go up or down after CPI?
Neither reliably on its own: Bitcoin was higher an hour after CPI on 59% of releases. When CPI came in above forecast (14 times), Bitcoin was higher an hour later 14% of the time, down 1.42% on average. When CPI came in below forecast (22 times), Bitcoin was higher an hour later 73% of the time, up 0.80% on average.
How much does Bitcoin move on CPI?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was $1,059. On 16% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 14 Mar 2023: $1,858, 195% of a normal day.
When is the next CPI?
Tuesday, 10 November 2026 at 08:30 New York. Consensus 3.9%.