How Markets React to CPI
Every US CPI (inflation) release, measured across gold, indices, forex and oil from 1-minute bars: the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes, what it swept, and whether the first move held. A new page lands the morning after each release.
First hour after CPI, on average
24 releases so far. The first-hour range as a share of each market's normal full day.
| Market | First hour vs a normal day | Reversed within the hour | Swept a key level |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 63% | 4 of 23 | 8 of 23 |
| GBPUSD | 63% | 4 of 23 | 10 of 23 |
| AUDUSD | 61% | 2 of 24 | 8 of 24 |
| USDJPY | 56% | 3 of 24 | 3 of 24 |
| S&P 500 | 51% | 4 of 23 | 10 of 23 |
| Gold | 48% | 4 of 23 | 6 of 23 |
| US30 | 47% | 4 of 23 | 4 of 23 |
| Silver | 43% | 5 of 23 | 4 of 23 |
| NAS100 | 43% | 5 of 23 | 7 of 23 |
| Ethereum | 42% | 2 of 24 | 4 of 24 |
| Bitcoin | 40% | 2 of 24 | 4 of 24 |
| Oil | 30% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 23 |
Every CPI release
Frequently asked questions
Which market moves most on CPI?
Across 24 CPI releases measured, EURUSD moved most in the first hour relative to its normal day (63% of an average day's range), then GBPUSD (63%) and AUDUSD (61%).
Does the first move after CPI hold?
EURUSD: reversed within the hour 4 of 23 times; GBPUSD: reversed within the hour 4 of 23 times; AUDUSD: reversed within the hour 2 of 24 times; USDJPY: reversed within the hour 3 of 24 times.
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