How NAS100 reacts to CPI
Every US CPI (inflation) release since 15 Jul 2016 measured on NAS100's 1-minute chart: 120 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 120 releasesAcross 120 CPI releases since 15 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, NAS100's first hour averaged 46% of a normal day's range, about 194.3 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 19% of the time.
When CPI came in above forecast (41 times), NAS100 was higher an hour later 34% of the time, down 0.54% on average. When CPI came in below forecast (41 times), NAS100 was higher an hour later 93% of the time, up 0.46% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 13 Sept 2022: 541.3 pts, 189% of a normal day.
Every CPI release on NAS100
120 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.79% | -0.95% | 317.8 pts · 68% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.14% | +0.11% | 296.3 pts · 80% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.09% | +0.29% | 242.5 pts · 37% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.57% | +0.40% | 244.8 pts · 36% | – | Replay |
| 10 Jun 2026 | 4.2 | 4.2 | +0.39% | +0.32% | 253.5 pts · 42% | – | Replay |
| 12 May 2026 | 3.8 | 3.7 | +0.07% | +0.18% | 124 pts · 29% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2026 | 3.3 | 3.3 | -0.09% | -0.04% | 80 pts · 14% | – | Replay |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.16% | +0.17% | 148.8 pts · 30% | yes | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2026 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.24% | +0.15% | 127.8 pts · 25% | – | Replay |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.44% | +0.15% | 140 pts · 42% | – | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 2.7 | 3.1 | +0.19% | +0.66% | 177.5 pts · 42% | – | Replay |
| 24 Oct 2025 | 3 | 3.1 | +0.48% | +0.40% | 179.3 pts · 45% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2025 | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.17% | +0.11% | 140 pts · 47% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2025 | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.50% | +0.30% | 159.8 pts · 55% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jul 2025 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.16% | +0.21% | 68 pts · 24% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jun 2025 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.50% | +0.28% | 160.8 pts · 47% | – | Replay |
| 13 May 2025 | 2.3 | 2.4 | +0.15% | +0.05% | 119 pts · 25% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2025 | 2.4 | 2.6 | +0.33% | -0.27% | 253.8 pts · 34% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Mar 2025 | 2.8 | 2.9 | +0.48% | +0.52% | 199.5 pts · 43% | – | Replay |
| 12 Feb 2025 | 3 | 2.9 | -1.24% | -1.26% | 339.3 pts · 84% | – | Replay |
| 11 Dec 2024 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.26% | +0.59% | 139.8 pts · 51% | – | Replay |
| 13 Nov 2024 | 2.6 | 2.6 | +0.34% | +0.06% | 109.8 pts · 37% | – | Replay |
| 10 Oct 2024 | 2.4 | 2.3 | -0.26% | -0.37% | 156.3 pts · 51% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2024 | 2.5 | 2.6 | -0.42% | +0.31% | 197 pts · 54% | yes | Replay |
| 14 Aug 2024 | 2.9 | 3 | -0.21% | +0.17% | 163.5 pts · 30% | yes | Replay |
| 11 Jul 2024 | 3 | 3.1 | +0.31% | +0.05% | 110.5 pts · 46% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 3.3 | 3.4 | +0.61% | +0.54% | 179.8 pts · 78% | – | Replay |
| 15 May 2024 | 3.4 | 3.4 | +0.68% | +0.59% | 147.5 pts · 52% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2024 | 3.5 | 3.4 | -1.56% | -1.45% | 360.8 pts · 144% | – | Replay |
| 12 Mar 2024 | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.21% | +0.04% | 177.3 pts · 65% | – | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2024 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -0.91% | -1.22% | 254.3 pts · 107% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jan 2024 | 3.4 | 3.2 | -0.35% | -0.26% | 164.8 pts · 76% | – | Replay |
| 12 Dec 2023 | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.27% | -0.52% | 115.8 pts · 58% | – | Replay |
| 14 Nov 2023 | 3.2 | 3.3 | +1.21% | +1.41% | 287.8 pts · 113% | – | Replay |
| 12 Oct 2023 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.43% | -0.31% | 83 pts · 32% | – | Replay |
| 13 Sept 2023 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.09% | +0.08% | 119 pts · 49% | yes | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the CPI page.
Frequently asked questions
How does NAS100 react to CPI?
Across 120 CPI releases since 15 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, NAS100's first hour averaged 46% of a normal day's range, about 194.3 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 19% of the time.
Does NAS100 go up or down after CPI?
Neither reliably on its own: NAS100 was higher an hour after CPI on 66% of releases. When CPI came in above forecast (41 times), NAS100 was higher an hour later 34% of the time, down 0.54% on average. When CPI came in below forecast (41 times), NAS100 was higher an hour later 93% of the time, up 0.46% on average.
How much does NAS100 move on CPI?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 194.3 pts. On 7% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 13 Sept 2022: 541.3 pts, 189% of a normal day.
When is the next CPI?
Tuesday, 10 November 2026 at 08:30 New York. Consensus 3.9%.
