How US30 reacts to CPI
Every US CPI (inflation) release since 15 Jul 2016 measured on US30's 1-minute chart: 120 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 120 releasesAcross 120 CPI releases since 15 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, US30's first hour averaged 44% of a normal day's range, about 249.2 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 24% of the time.
When CPI came in above forecast (41 times), US30 was higher an hour later 39% of the time, down 0.34% on average. When CPI came in below forecast (41 times), US30 was higher an hour later 71% of the time, up 0.27% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 13 Sept 2022: 896 pts, 177% of a normal day.
Every CPI release on US30
120 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.58% | -0.62% | 428 pts · 71% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.07% | +0.12% | 398 pts · 84% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.13% | -0.01% | 230 pts · 36% | – | Replay |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.46% | +0.35% | 442 pts · 78% | – | Replay |
| 10 Jun 2026 | 4.2 | 4.2 | +0.03% | +0.23% | 255 pts · 39% | – | Replay |
| 12 May 2026 | 3.8 | 3.7 | +0.00% | -0.07% | 119 pts · 20% | yes | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2026 | 3.3 | 3.3 | -0.00% | -0.04% | 129 pts · 15% | – | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2026 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.22% | +0.22% | 154 pts · 22% | – | Replay |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.37% | +0.15% | 232 pts · 46% | – | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 2.7 | 3.1 | +0.06% | +0.23% | 161.5 pts · 29% | – | Replay |
| 24 Oct 2025 | 3 | 3.1 | +0.37% | +0.41% | 283 pts · 48% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2025 | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.09% | -0.00% | 159 pts · 39% | – | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2025 | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.42% | +0.30% | 256.5 pts · 54% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jul 2025 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.13% | +0.12% | 93 pts · 19% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jun 2025 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.40% | +0.25% | 368 pts · 71% | – | Replay |
| 13 May 2025 | 2.3 | 2.4 | +0.07% | -0.02% | 160 pts · 20% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2025 | 2.4 | 2.6 | +0.23% | -0.20% | 411 pts · 35% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Mar 2025 | 2.8 | 2.9 | +0.15% | -0.08% | 378 pts · 58% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Feb 2025 | 3 | 2.9 | -0.91% | -0.81% | 450 pts · 86% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jan 2025 | 2.9 | 2.9 | +0.84% | +0.96% | 491 pts · 84% | – | Replay |
| 11 Dec 2024 | 2.7 | 2.7 | +0.19% | +0.09% | 122 pts · 31% | – | Replay |
| 13 Nov 2024 | 2.6 | 2.6 | +0.34% | +0.29% | 201 pts · 42% | – | Replay |
| 10 Oct 2024 | 2.4 | 2.3 | -0.17% | +0.00% | 187 pts · 43% | – | Replay |
| 11 Sept 2024 | 2.5 | 2.6 | -0.37% | -0.03% | 190 pts · 42% | – | Replay |
| 14 Aug 2024 | 2.9 | 3 | -0.16% | -0.05% | 185 pts · 29% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jul 2024 | 3 | 3.1 | +0.30% | +0.15% | 176 pts · 48% | – | Replay |
| 12 Jun 2024 | 3.3 | 3.4 | +0.49% | +0.88% | 385 pts · 102% | – | Replay |
| 15 May 2024 | 3.4 | 3.4 | +0.35% | +0.32% | 209 pts · 51% | – | Replay |
| 10 Apr 2024 | 3.5 | 3.4 | -1.12% | -1.25% | 612 pts · 144% | – | Replay |
| 12 Mar 2024 | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.18% | +0.23% | 286 pts · 86% | – | Replay |
| 13 Feb 2024 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -0.64% | -0.69% | 384 pts · 111% | – | Replay |
| 11 Jan 2024 | 3.4 | 3.2 | -0.08% | +0.06% | 206 pts · 61% | yes | Replay |
| 12 Dec 2023 | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.09% | -0.22% | 210 pts · 83% | – | Replay |
| 14 Nov 2023 | 3.2 | 3.3 | +0.80% | +1.06% | 456 pts · 119% | – | Replay |
| 12 Oct 2023 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -0.29% | -0.30% | 129 pts · 32% | – | Replay |
| 13 Sept 2023 | 3.7 | 3.6 | +0.01% | +0.11% | 149 pts · 45% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the CPI page.
Frequently asked questions
How does US30 react to CPI?
Across 120 CPI releases since 15 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, US30's first hour averaged 44% of a normal day's range, about 249.2 pts over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 24% of the time.
Does US30 go up or down after CPI?
Neither reliably on its own: US30 was higher an hour after CPI on 57% of releases. When CPI came in above forecast (41 times), US30 was higher an hour later 39% of the time, down 0.34% on average. When CPI came in below forecast (41 times), US30 was higher an hour later 71% of the time, up 0.27% on average.
How much does US30 move on CPI?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 249.2 pts. On 8% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 13 Sept 2022: 896 pts, 177% of a normal day.
When is the next CPI?
Tuesday, 10 November 2026 at 08:30 New York. Consensus 3.9%.
