How USDJPY reacts to BoJ
Every Bank of Japan rate decision release since 28 Jul 2016 measured on USDJPY's 1-minute chart: 82 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 82 releasesAcross 82 BoJ releases since 28 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, USDJPY's first hour averaged 47% of a normal day's range, about 45.8 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 39% of the time.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 27 Jul 2023: 423.8 pips, 303% of a normal day.
Every BoJ release on USDJPY
82 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | 1.25 | 1.25 | -0.01% | -0.09% | 51.7 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
| 17 Sept 2026 | 1.25 | – | -0.02% | +0.50% | 118.8 pips · 94% | yes | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 1 | 1 | -0.05% | +0.14% | 43.6 pips · 46% | yes | Replay |
| 15 Jun 2026 | 1 | – | -0.02% | +0.05% | 21.5 pips · 39% | yes | Replay |
| 27 Apr 2026 | 0.75 | 0.75 | +0.02% | -0.25% | 47.9 pips · 57% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 0.75 | 0.75 | -0.01% | +0.06% | 15.1 pips · 13% | yes | Replay |
| 22 Jan 2026 | 0.75 | 0.75 | +0.00% | +0.06% | 27.4 pips · 31% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 0.75 | – | +0.02% | +0.24% | 63.4 pips · 58% | – | Replay |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.00% | +0.28% | 78.5 pips · 68% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Sept 2025 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.02% | -0.14% | 20.4 pips · 17% | – | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.01% | -0.04% | 40.6 pips · 31% | yes | Replay |
| 16 Jun 2025 | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.03% | -0.05% | 20.6 pips · 13% | yes | Replay |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.04% | +0.29% | 54.9 pips · 26% | – | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2025 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.11% | +0.02% | 31.7 pips · 20% | – | Replay |
| 23 Jan 2025 | 0.5 | – | -0.05% | -0.21% | 65.1 pips · 52% | – | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 0.25 | 0.5 | +0.07% | +0.48% | 96.4 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
| 30 Oct 2024 | 0.25 | 0.25 | -0.01% | -0.30% | 62.8 pips · 50% | – | Replay |
| 19 Sept 2024 | 0.25 | 0.25 | +0.04% | -0.29% | 82.3 pips · 46% | yes | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2024 | 0.25 | 0.1 | -0.06% | +0.47% | 236.9 pips · 144% | yes | Replay |
| 13 Jun 2024 | 0.1 | – | +0.06% | +0.36% | 96.4 pips · 97% | – | Replay |
| 25 Apr 2024 | 0.1 | – | -0.02% | +0.16% | 51.3 pips · 75% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2024 | 0.1 | – | -0.04% | -0.01% | 26 pips · 25% | – | Replay |
| 22 Jan 2024 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.04% | +0.13% | 51.9 pips · 40% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2023 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.01% | +0.54% | 119.5 pips · 69% | – | Replay |
| 30 Oct 2023 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.02% | +0.27% | 150.9 pips · 173% | yes | Replay |
| 21 Sept 2023 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.01% | +0.30% | 53.3 pips · 51% | – | Replay |
| 27 Jul 2023 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.00% | +0.20% | 423.8 pips · 303% | yes | Replay |
| 15 Jun 2023 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.03% | +0.08% | 76.4 pips · 64% | – | Replay |
| 27 Apr 2023 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.03% | -0.14% | 82 pips · 70% | yes | Replay |
| 9 Mar 2023 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.64% | +0.46% | 114.1 pips · 88% | – | Replay |
| 17 Jan 2023 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.02% | +1.91% | 266.1 pips · 135% | yes | Replay |
| 19 Dec 2022 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.01% | -2.64% | 429.9 pips · 218% | yes | Replay |
| 27 Oct 2022 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.06% | -0.04% | 91.1 pips · 57% | – | Replay |
| 21 Sept 2022 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.01% | +0.25% | 195.7 pips · 127% | – | Replay |
| 20 Jul 2022 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.01% | -0.01% | 54 pips · 48% | – | Replay |
| 16 Jun 2022 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.02% | +0.33% | 236.7 pips · 170% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the BoJ page.
Frequently asked questions
How does USDJPY react to BoJ?
Across 82 BoJ releases since 28 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, USDJPY's first hour averaged 47% of a normal day's range, about 45.8 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 39% of the time.
Does USDJPY go up or down after BoJ?
Neither reliably on its own: USDJPY was higher an hour after BoJ on 60% of releases.
How much does USDJPY move on BoJ?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 45.8 pips. On 11% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 27 Jul 2023: 423.8 pips, 303% of a normal day.
