CRTLAB Answers · measured, not opinion
Does the London open set the direction for the day?
Answered with real trades on 13 markets of CRTLAB's own price history, 2017–2026. The rules were fixed before any result was seen, and every one of them is on this page.
The answer
No. The first hour of London (02:00–03:00 New York) pointed the same way as the rest of the London and New York morning on 50.1% of 26,246 days — a coin flip, and the same as the hour before London opens (50.1%). Following it averaged 0.00R ± 0.01 a trade.
The short answer
Fading the first hour instead (stop beyond its extreme) averaged −0.07R ± 0.01. After a large first hour (more than 0.15 of the average daily range), the morning went the same way on 50.9% of 4,347 days: still a coin.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD
EUR/USD: same way on 51.4% of 2,407 days (hour before London 50.4%), following it +0.04R ± 0.03. GBP/USD: 50.3% (control 50.3%), +0.01R ± 0.03. The pairs London trades most show no more direction from its first hour than any other market.
Every market
First hour of London against 03:00–12:00 New York, and the hour before London against 02:00–11:00 as the control.
| Market | Since | Days | Same way | Control | Following it | Fading it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | 2017 | 2,391 | 49.6% | 48.4% | −0.05R ± 0.03 | +0.01R ± 0.04 |
| S&P 500 | 2017 | 2,325 | 48.9% | 49.5% | −0.02R ± 0.03 | −0.04R ± 0.04 |
| Dow Jones (US30) | 2017 | 2,373 | 49.4% | 50.0% | −0.02R ± 0.03 | −0.01R ± 0.04 |
| DAX (GER40) | 2025 | 392 | 49.7% | 47.0% | −0.08R ± 0.07 | −0.15R ± 0.08 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 2017 | 2,375 | 49.5% | 49.0% | +0.03R ± 0.03 | −0.07R ± 0.03 |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | 2017 | 2,295 | 47.2% | 51.3% | 0.00R ± 0.03 | −0.07R ± 0.03 |
| Crude oil (WTI) | 2017 | 2,377 | 50.4% | 50.8% | +0.01R ± 0.03 | −0.10R ± 0.03 |
| EUR/USD | 2017 | 2,407 | 51.4% | 50.4% | +0.04R ± 0.03 | −0.10R ± 0.03 |
| GBP/USD | 2017 | 2,382 | 50.3% | 50.3% | +0.01R ± 0.03 | −0.06R ± 0.03 |
| USD/JPY | 2017 | 2,359 | 51.7% | 51.0% | −0.03R ± 0.03 | −0.11R ± 0.03 |
| AUD/USD | 2017 | 2,355 | 51.3% | 49.8% | 0.00R ± 0.03 | −0.07R ± 0.03 |
| Bitcoin | 2022 | 1,110 | 52.3% | 49.3% | +0.07R ± 0.04 | −0.11R ± 0.05 |
| Ethereum | 2022 | 1,105 | 50.4% | 52.2% | +0.03R ± 0.04 | −0.07R ± 0.05 |
What this means for your trading
- The first London hour is not a bias on its own. Wait for something more: a level taken, a shift in structure, the New York open.
- London is still where much of the day's range starts. See what time the high and low of the day are made.
- Replay London opens one candle at a time and log your read at 03:00. Compare your hit rate with 50%.
Test it yourself
EUR/USD on the 5-minute chart. Replay from 02:00 New York, make your call at 03:00, and see how the morning plays out. The chart opens in your browser with nothing to install — 10,000 candles free, no card. Replay the London open on EUR/USD.
How we measured it
CRTLAB's own 5-minute price history, 3 January 2017 to 30 October 2026, on 13 markets: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones (US30), DAX (GER40), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude oil (WTI), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, Ethereum (DAX (GER40) from 2025, Bitcoin from 2022, Ethereum from 2022). A trading day runs 18:00 to 17:00 New York and carries the date it ends on; Monday to Friday only, and a day counts only if it is complete (half-holidays are left out).
The first hour of London is the 02:00 open to the 02:55 close (New York). The morning is the 03:00 open to the 11:55 close. THE CONTROL is the identical test one hour earlier (01:00–02:00 against 02:00–11:00), before London opens.
Following: enter at the 03:00 open in the first hour's direction, stop at the far side of the 02:00–03:00 range, target 2R, out at the 12:00 price. Fading: enter against it at 03:00 with the stop just beyond the first hour's extreme on its side. Stops under 0.02 ADR away are skipped. No spread or commission is included; a candle that reaches both the stop and the target counts as a loss, because we cannot see inside a candle. Every rule and every split was fixed before any result was seen.
Frequently asked questions
Does the London open set the direction for the day?
No. The first hour of London (02:00–03:00 New York) pointed the same way as the rest of the London and New York morning on 50.1% of 26,246 days — a coin flip, and the same as the hour before London opens (50.1%). Following it averaged 0.00R ± 0.01 a trade.
Does the London open set the direction on EUR/USD?
On EUR/USD the first London hour matched the rest of the morning on 51.4% of 2,407 days; following it averaged +0.04R a trade.
What time is the London open in New York time?
02:00 New York for most of the year (07:00 London in winter, 08:00 London in summer, with a week or two each spring and autumn when the clocks change on different dates).
The average says what usually happens. Replay tells you if your version beats it.
Replay real market history candle by candle with the future hidden, take the setup by your own rules, and every trade is scored for you — on 38 markets and every timeframe.
Replay the London open on EUR/USD