CRTLAB Answers · measured, not opinion

Does price return to the midnight open?

Name: Does Price Return to the Midnight Open? 25,401 Days Measured
Creator: CRTLAB
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Answered with real trades on 13 markets of CRTLAB's own price history, 2017–2026. The rules were fixed before any result was seen, and every one of them is on this page.

The answer

About as often as it reaches any level the same distance away. From 08:30 New York, price came back to the midnight open on 58.2% of 25,401 days by 16:00 — and reached a mirror level, the same distance on the other side, on 58.3%. The midnight open is not a magnet; it is reached because it is close.

Days measured25,401

Back to midnight open58.2%

Mirror level58.3%

By 12:0051.9%

Measured 2 November 2026 · data to 19 October 2026Replay the midnight open on gold

The short answer

It was reached first — before the mirror — on 40.2% of days, and the mirror first on 39.9%. If the midnight open pulled price, those two would not be level.

Every market

Market	Since	Days	Midnight open by 12:00	By 16:00	Mirror by 16:00
Nasdaq 100	2017	2,240	63.3%	69.9%	67.8%
S&P 500	2017	2,244	60.9%	69.1%	67.6%
Dow Jones (US30)	2017	2,251	61.3%	69.3%	68.0%
DAX (GER40)	2025	375	38.7%	44.8%	42.4%
Gold (XAU/USD)	2017	2,259	51.6%	57.1%	57.6%
Silver (XAG/USD)	2017	2,296	53.1%	57.5%	56.4%
Crude oil (WTI)	2017	2,314	52.7%	59.3%	60.9%
EUR/USD	2017	2,359	44.9%	51.2%	50.5%
GBP/USD	2017	2,343	42.0%	47.5%	49.4%
USD/JPY	2017	2,337	46.4%	51.9%	53.6%
AUD/USD	2017	2,349	45.7%	51.8%	52.4%
Bitcoin	2022	1,024	54.5%	62.0%	63.1%
Ethereum	2022	1,010	49.1%	58.0%	58.8%

What this means for your trading

The midnight open is a useful reference for where the day started — it is not a target by itself.
A setup that uses it needs a reason the mirror level does not have: a sweep, a gap, a shift in structure.

Test it yourself

Gold on the 15-minute chart with the midnight open and yesterday's levels drawn. Replay the New York session and watch what price does around it. The chart opens in your browser with nothing to install — 10,000 candles free, no card. Replay the midnight open on gold.

How we measured it

CRTLAB's own 5-minute price history, 3 January 2017 to 19 October 2026, on 13 markets: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones (US30), DAX (GER40), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude oil (WTI), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, Ethereum (DAX (GER40) from 2025, Bitcoin from 2022, Ethereum from 2022). A trading day runs 18:00 to 17:00 New York and carries the date it ends on; Monday to Friday only, and a day counts only if it is complete (half-holidays are left out).

The midnight open is the open of the 00:00 New York candle. From the 08:30 price (the open of the 08:30 candle), each 5-minute candle to 16:00 is checked for trading through it. Days where 08:30 is within 0.02 of the 20-day average daily range of the midnight open are skipped (already there).

THE CONTROL is a level the same distance from the 08:30 price on the other side, checked the same way. Every rule was fixed before any result was seen.

Frequently asked questions

Does price return to the midnight open?

What is the ICT midnight open?

The price at 00:00 New York time, which ICT uses as the reference for the day's direction: above it is a premium, below it a discount.

→RelatedAll answers

Does the ICT Silver Bullet work?No edge on its own. Across 46,392 Silver Bullet trades on 13 markets since 2017, the setup averaged +0.02R a trade in the AM window — breakeven before spread and commission.What time is the high or low of the day made?Between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed the day's high or low 27.8% of the time across 27,187 trading days — about 2.2× what the same hours would get if the day's moves came in a random order (12.5%).Is the ICT Judas swing real?Not on average. The first move after midnight New York pointed the OPPOSITE way to the day's move on only 43.0% of 26,125 days — it continued more often than it reversed, in every one of 13 markets. After a large early move, the day went the same way 74.0% of the time.Does the opening range breakout work?Slightly, before costs. Trading the first break of the 09:30–09:45 New York range — stop at the other side, held to 16:00 — averaged +0.09R ± 0.01 a trade over 26,894 trades, and was positive on 13 of 13 markets. The win rate is low; the edge comes from the days that run.How often do gaps fill on the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow?58.4% of opening gaps on the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow filled the same day, across 6,984 gaps since 2017 — 82.0% of small ones (under 0.25%) but only 22.8% of gaps over 1%. A level the same distance on the other side was reached 55.5% of the time, so gaps fill a little more than chance, not much.Which day of the week makes the weekly high or low?Monday and Friday — 55.6% of weekly highs and 58.3% of weekly lows across 4,767 weeks. But the same weeks with their days shuffled into a random order give 58.5% and 57.7%: the Monday/Friday pattern is the arithmetic of the week's two ends, not market behaviour.How often is the previous week's high or low taken?87.6% of weeks took last week's high or low, across 4,005 weeks since 2017: the high 52.5%, the low 44.8%, both 9.8%. When it was taken, it was most often on Monday — 51.7% of the weeks that took the high.Do ICT macros work?No more than the time around them. Across 214,928 macro windows on 13 markets since 2017, a macro moved 0.98× as much as the same-length windows just before and after it, and out-moved both neighbours about a third of the time — what chance gives.Does yesterday's daily candle predict today's?Barely. After an up day, the next day closed up 50.5% of the time; after a down day, 53.8% — against 52.1% for every day, across 26,801 days on 13 markets. If anything, a down day is followed by a slightly better chance of an up day, not a down one.Does London sweep the Asian range and reverse?Usually not. After London (02:00–05:00 New York) took one side of the Asian range, price went on to the other side first on 41.1% of 9,037 days, and ran a full Asian range further the same way first on 44.7%. Both levels are the same distance away, so a reversal pattern would show the first number well ahead; it is behind, on 11 of 13 markets.What time does gold make its high or low of the day?Most often between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed gold's high or low of the day 31.3% of the time across 2,429 trading days since 2017, 2.5× what the same hours get when each day's hours are shuffled into a random order (12.6%). The strongest single hour was 09:00–10:00.Does the 8:30 news candle show the direction of the day?It is big, but it does not tell you the day's direction. The 08:30 New York candle averaged 1.8× the range of the candles around it (3.7× on jobs-report Fridays), yet the 08:30–09:00 move pointed the same way as the rest of the US day on only 49.4% of 26,239 days, against 49.9% for the same test an hour earlier. A coin gives 50%.Does the London open set the direction for the day?No. The first hour of London (02:00–03:00 New York) pointed the same way as the rest of the London and New York morning on 50.1% of 26,246 days — a coin flip, and the same as the hour before London opens (50.1%). Following it averaged 0.00R ± 0.01 a trade.Does the opening range breakout work on gold?On gold, slightly, before costs. Trading the first break of the 09:30–09:45 New York range — stop at the other side, held to 16:00 — averaged +0.12R ± 0.04 a trade over 2,394 trades since 2017, number 4 of 13 markets tested. With a 2R target it averaged +0.09R ± 0.03.What time does EUR/USD make its high or low of the day?Most often between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed EUR/USD's high or low of the day 29.5% of the time across 2,478 trading days since 2017, 2.4× what the same hours get when each day's hours are shuffled into a random order (12.5%). The strongest single hour was 10:00–11:00.Asian range statisticsFree tool Previous day high & low statisticsFree tool

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