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CRTLAB Answers · measured, not opinion

Is the ICT Judas swing real?

Answered with real trades on 13 markets of CRTLAB's own price history, 2017–2026. The rules were fixed before any result was seen, and every one of them is on this page.

The answer

Not on average. The first move after midnight New York pointed the OPPOSITE way to the day's move on only 43.0% of 26,125 days — it continued more often than it reversed, in every one of 13 markets. After a large early move, the day went the same way 74.0% of the time.

Days measured26,125
Early move reversed43.0%
Coin flip50.0%
Fading it, a trade−0.03R
Measured 2 November 2026 · data to 19 October 2026Replay the midnight open on NAS100

The short answer

Faded as a trade at 02:00 — stop beyond the early move, target 2R — it averaged −0.03R ± 0.01 over 18,541 trades. The Judas swing exists on some days, as any reversal does, but the early move is not a fake on average: it is a mild signal the other way.

By the size of the early move

The early move (00:00 to 02:00 New York) in units of the average daily range of the 20 days before. If the Judas swing were real, big early moves — the obvious fakes — would reverse most.

Early moveDaysDay went the other way
Small (under 0.1 ADR)18,29645.8%
Medium (0.1–0.25 ADR)6,72738.1%
Large (over 0.25 ADR)1,10226.0%
All26,12543.0%

Every market

Reversal rate and the fade trade, market by market. A real Judas swing would show above 50% somewhere; none does.

MarketSinceDaysReversedFade tradeTrades
Nasdaq 10020172,39545.6%−0.02R ± 0.041,521
S&P 50020172,31745.1%−0.10R ± 0.041,395
Dow Jones (US30)20172,37544.3%−0.01R ± 0.041,467
DAX (GER40)202538440.4%−0.09R ± 0.08278
Gold (XAU/USD)20172,35641.0%−0.04R ± 0.031,847
Silver (XAG/USD)20172,29740.1%−0.05R ± 0.031,784
Crude oil (WTI)20172,36144.4%−0.03R ± 0.041,553
EUR/USD20172,37845.2%+0.05R ± 0.041,656
GBP/USD20172,34544.3%−0.07R ± 0.031,693
USD/JPY20172,36741.1%−0.12R ± 0.031,860
AUD/USD20172,35239.1%0.00R ± 0.031,868
Bitcoin20221,10042.1%+0.05R ± 0.05819
Ethereum20221,09843.4%+0.09R ± 0.05800

What about Power of 3 (AMD)?

ICT's Power of 3 (accumulation, manipulation, distribution) rests on the same idea: an early move against the day's direction before the real move. On these numbers the early move is more often accumulation in the day's direction than manipulation against it. If you trade Power of 3, the edge has to come from something you add — a sweep of a clear level, a shift in structure — so measure that version against this baseline.

Test it yourself

NAS100 on the 15-minute chart with the midnight open drawn. Replay from 00:00 and decide at 02:00 whether the move is a Judas swing — then see. The chart opens in your browser with nothing to install — 10,000 candles free, no card. Replay the midnight open on NAS100.

How we measured it

CRTLAB's own 5-minute price history, 3 January 2017 to 19 October 2026, on 13 markets: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones (US30), DAX (GER40), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude oil (WTI), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, Ethereum (DAX (GER40) from 2025, Bitcoin from 2022, Ethereum from 2022). A trading day runs 18:00 to 17:00 New York and carries the date it ends on; Monday to Friday only, and a day counts only if it is complete (half-holidays are left out).

The midnight open is the open of the 00:00 New York candle. The early move is from there to the 02:00 price (the close of the 01:55 candle); the day's move is from the midnight open to the 16:00 price (the close of the 15:55 candle). A day counts as a reversal when the two point in opposite directions. Size is measured against the average daily range of the 20 days before.

The fade trade enters at the 02:00 price against the early move, with the stop just beyond the 00:00–02:00 extreme on that side, a 2R target, and exits at the 16:00 price if neither is hit. Trades with a stop under 0.02 ADR away are skipped. No spread or commission is included; a candle that reaches both the stop and the target counts as a loss, because we cannot see inside a candle. Every rule and every split was fixed before any result was seen.

Frequently asked questions

Is the ICT Judas swing real?

Not on average. The first move after midnight New York pointed the OPPOSITE way to the day's move on only 43.0% of 26,125 days — it continued more often than it reversed, in every one of 13 markets. After a large early move, the day went the same way 74.0% of the time.

What time is the Judas swing?

In ICT's teaching, the Judas swing is the false move after the midnight New York open, usually between 00:00 and the London open (02:00–05:00 New York). This test measures 00:00 to 02:00.

Does fading the early move work?

Fading the 00:00–02:00 move at 02:00 with a 2R target averaged −0.03R a trade over 18,541 trades, winning 32.2%.

→RelatedAll answers
Does the ICT Silver Bullet work?No edge on its own. Across 46,392 Silver Bullet trades on 13 markets since 2017, the setup averaged +0.02R a trade in the AM window — breakeven before spread and commission.What time is the high or low of the day made?Between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed the day's high or low 27.8% of the time across 27,187 trading days — about 2.2× what the same hours would get if the day's moves came in a random order (12.5%).Does the opening range breakout work?Slightly, before costs. Trading the first break of the 09:30–09:45 New York range — stop at the other side, held to 16:00 — averaged +0.09R ± 0.01 a trade over 26,894 trades, and was positive on 13 of 13 markets. The win rate is low; the edge comes from the days that run.How often do gaps fill on the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow?58.4% of opening gaps on the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow filled the same day, across 6,984 gaps since 2017 — 82.0% of small ones (under 0.25%) but only 22.8% of gaps over 1%. A level the same distance on the other side was reached 55.5% of the time, so gaps fill a little more than chance, not much.Which day of the week makes the weekly high or low?Monday and Friday — 55.6% of weekly highs and 58.3% of weekly lows across 4,767 weeks. But the same weeks with their days shuffled into a random order give 58.5% and 57.7%: the Monday/Friday pattern is the arithmetic of the week's two ends, not market behaviour.How often is the previous week's high or low taken?87.6% of weeks took last week's high or low, across 4,005 weeks since 2017: the high 52.5%, the low 44.8%, both 9.8%. When it was taken, it was most often on Monday — 51.7% of the weeks that took the high.Does price return to the midnight open?About as often as it reaches any level the same distance away. From 08:30 New York, price came back to the midnight open on 58.2% of 25,401 days by 16:00 — and reached a mirror level, the same distance on the other side, on 58.3%. The midnight open is not a magnet; it is reached because it is close.Do ICT macros work?No more than the time around them. Across 214,928 macro windows on 13 markets since 2017, a macro moved 0.98× as much as the same-length windows just before and after it, and out-moved both neighbours about a third of the time — what chance gives.Does yesterday's daily candle predict today's?Barely. After an up day, the next day closed up 50.5% of the time; after a down day, 53.8% — against 52.1% for every day, across 26,801 days on 13 markets. If anything, a down day is followed by a slightly better chance of an up day, not a down one.Does London sweep the Asian range and reverse?Usually not. After London (02:00–05:00 New York) took one side of the Asian range, price went on to the other side first on 41.1% of 9,037 days, and ran a full Asian range further the same way first on 44.7%. Both levels are the same distance away, so a reversal pattern would show the first number well ahead; it is behind, on 11 of 13 markets.What time does gold make its high or low of the day?Most often between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed gold's high or low of the day 31.3% of the time across 2,429 trading days since 2017, 2.5× what the same hours get when each day's hours are shuffled into a random order (12.6%). The strongest single hour was 09:00–10:00.Does the 8:30 news candle show the direction of the day?It is big, but it does not tell you the day's direction. The 08:30 New York candle averaged 1.8× the range of the candles around it (3.7× on jobs-report Fridays), yet the 08:30–09:00 move pointed the same way as the rest of the US day on only 49.4% of 26,239 days, against 49.9% for the same test an hour earlier. A coin gives 50%.Does the London open set the direction for the day?No. The first hour of London (02:00–03:00 New York) pointed the same way as the rest of the London and New York morning on 50.1% of 26,246 days — a coin flip, and the same as the hour before London opens (50.1%). Following it averaged 0.00R ± 0.01 a trade.Does the opening range breakout work on gold?On gold, slightly, before costs. Trading the first break of the 09:30–09:45 New York range — stop at the other side, held to 16:00 — averaged +0.12R ± 0.04 a trade over 2,394 trades since 2017, number 4 of 13 markets tested. With a 2R target it averaged +0.09R ± 0.03.What time does EUR/USD make its high or low of the day?Most often between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed EUR/USD's high or low of the day 29.5% of the time across 2,478 trading days since 2017, 2.4× what the same hours get when each day's hours are shuffled into a random order (12.5%). The strongest single hour was 10:00–11:00.Asian range statisticsFree toolICT Power of 3 backtesterFree toolSession and kill zone timesFree tool

The average says what usually happens. Replay tells you if your version beats it.

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