CRTLAB Answers · measured, not opinion

Does the opening range breakout work?

Name: Does the Opening Range Breakout Work? 26,894 Trades Measured
Creator: CRTLAB
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Answered with real trades on 13 markets of CRTLAB's own price history, 2017–2026. The rules were fixed before any result was seen, and every one of them is on this page.

The answer

Slightly, before costs. Trading the first break of the 09:30–09:45 New York range — stop at the other side, held to 16:00 — averaged +0.09R ± 0.01 a trade over 26,894 trades, and was positive on 13 of 13 markets. The win rate is low; the edge comes from the days that run.

Trades (15-min range)26,894

Held to 16:00+0.09R

Positive markets13 of 13

Close beyond the break50.3%

Measured 2 November 2026 · data to 19 October 2026Replay the 09:30 open on NAS100

The short answer

It is a small edge — about a tenth of the risk per trade — and it is before spread, commission and slippage on the entry, which on a breakout is real. Measured on the opposite-side stop it holds up across every market; a tighter stop or a different session is a different strategy and needs its own test.

Every version

The same entry, three exits, two range lengths, every market pooled.

Range	Exit	Trades	Won	Lost	Open at 16:00	Average a trade
09:30–09:45	1R target	26,894	49.1%	44.3%	6.6%	+0.05R ± 0.01
09:30–09:45	2R target	26,894	26.9%	54.8%	18.3%	+0.07R ± 0.01
09:30–09:45	Held to 16:00	26,894	0.0%	59.1%	40.9%	+0.09R ± 0.01
09:30–10:00	1R target	26,761	42.8%	37.4%	19.8%	+0.05R ± 0.01
09:30–10:00	2R target	26,761	18.3%	43.0%	38.7%	+0.07R ± 0.01
09:30–10:00	Held to 16:00	26,761	0.0%	44.5%	55.5%	+0.09R ± 0.01

Where the day finished

After the 15-minute range broke, the 16:00 price was beyond the broken side on 50.3% of days, back inside the range on 20.4%, and beyond the other side on 29.2%. The first break was upward on 50.1% of days.

Every market

The 15-minute range, held to 16:00, market by market.

Market	Since	Trades	Won or ahead at 16:00	Average a trade	At 2R
Ethereum	2022	1,114	39.1%	+0.31R ± 0.07	+0.14R
Bitcoin	2022	1,110	38.5%	+0.24R ± 0.07	+0.09R
DAX (GER40)	2025	403	44.4%	+0.19R ± 0.10	+0.13R
Gold (XAU/USD)	2017	2,394	45.9%	+0.12R ± 0.04	+0.09R
USD/JPY	2017	2,439	38.2%	+0.10R ± 0.04	+0.06R
AUD/USD	2017	2,450	36.3%	+0.09R ± 0.04	+0.04R
Nasdaq 100	2017	2,425	48.2%	+0.08R ± 0.03	+0.08R
EUR/USD	2017	2,446	35.4%	+0.08R ± 0.04	+0.07R
S&P 500	2017	2,418	40.7%	+0.07R ± 0.03	+0.06R
Silver (XAG/USD)	2017	2,391	46.3%	+0.07R ± 0.03	+0.06R
Crude oil (WTI)	2017	2,428	36.6%	+0.06R ± 0.04	+0.08R
Dow Jones (US30)	2017	2,423	48.5%	+0.05R ± 0.03	+0.04R
GBP/USD	2017	2,453	34.0%	+0.05R ± 0.04	+0.03R

Test it yourself

NAS100 on the 5-minute chart. Replay any day from 09:30, mark the first 15 minutes, and trade the break your way. The chart opens in your browser with nothing to install — 10,000 candles free, no card. Replay the 09:30 open on NAS100.

How we measured it

CRTLAB's own 5-minute price history, 3 January 2017 to 19 October 2026, on 13 markets: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones (US30), DAX (GER40), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude oil (WTI), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, Ethereum (DAX (GER40) from 2025, Bitcoin from 2022, Ethereum from 2022). A trading day runs 18:00 to 17:00 New York and carries the date it ends on; Monday to Friday only, and a day counts only if it is complete (half-holidays are left out).

The opening range is the high and low of the 09:30–09:45 New York candles (and 09:30–10:00 as a variant). The breakout is the first later 5-minute candle to trade beyond it; a candle that breaks both sides at once is skipped.

Entry at the broken edge, or at the candle's open if it opened beyond it. Stop at the far side of the range. Exit at 1R, at 2R, or at the 16:00 price with no target. The breakout candle can stop the trade but cannot win it. No spread or commission is included; a candle that reaches both the stop and the target counts as a loss, because we cannot see inside a candle. Every rule and every split was fixed before any result was seen.

Frequently asked questions

Does the opening range breakout work?

What is the win rate of the opening range breakout?

With a 1R target the 15-minute range breakout won 49.1% of 26,894 trades (+0.05R a trade); with 2R, 26.9% (+0.07R).

Is the 15-minute or 30-minute opening range better?

Held to the close, both averaged about the same: +0.09R for 15 minutes and +0.09R for 30.

→RelatedAll answers

Does the ICT Silver Bullet work?No edge on its own. Across 46,392 Silver Bullet trades on 13 markets since 2017, the setup averaged +0.02R a trade in the AM window — breakeven before spread and commission.What time is the high or low of the day made?Between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed the day's high or low 27.8% of the time across 27,187 trading days — about 2.2× what the same hours would get if the day's moves came in a random order (12.5%).Is the ICT Judas swing real?Not on average. The first move after midnight New York pointed the OPPOSITE way to the day's move on only 43.0% of 26,125 days — it continued more often than it reversed, in every one of 13 markets. After a large early move, the day went the same way 74.0% of the time.How often do gaps fill on the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow?58.4% of opening gaps on the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow filled the same day, across 6,984 gaps since 2017 — 82.0% of small ones (under 0.25%) but only 22.8% of gaps over 1%. A level the same distance on the other side was reached 55.5% of the time, so gaps fill a little more than chance, not much.Which day of the week makes the weekly high or low?Monday and Friday — 55.6% of weekly highs and 58.3% of weekly lows across 4,767 weeks. But the same weeks with their days shuffled into a random order give 58.5% and 57.7%: the Monday/Friday pattern is the arithmetic of the week's two ends, not market behaviour.How often is the previous week's high or low taken?87.6% of weeks took last week's high or low, across 4,005 weeks since 2017: the high 52.5%, the low 44.8%, both 9.8%. When it was taken, it was most often on Monday — 51.7% of the weeks that took the high.Does price return to the midnight open?About as often as it reaches any level the same distance away. From 08:30 New York, price came back to the midnight open on 58.2% of 25,401 days by 16:00 — and reached a mirror level, the same distance on the other side, on 58.3%. The midnight open is not a magnet; it is reached because it is close.Do ICT macros work?No more than the time around them. Across 214,928 macro windows on 13 markets since 2017, a macro moved 0.98× as much as the same-length windows just before and after it, and out-moved both neighbours about a third of the time — what chance gives.Does yesterday's daily candle predict today's?Barely. After an up day, the next day closed up 50.5% of the time; after a down day, 53.8% — against 52.1% for every day, across 26,801 days on 13 markets. If anything, a down day is followed by a slightly better chance of an up day, not a down one.Does London sweep the Asian range and reverse?Usually not. After London (02:00–05:00 New York) took one side of the Asian range, price went on to the other side first on 41.1% of 9,037 days, and ran a full Asian range further the same way first on 44.7%. Both levels are the same distance away, so a reversal pattern would show the first number well ahead; it is behind, on 11 of 13 markets.What time does gold make its high or low of the day?Most often between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed gold's high or low of the day 31.3% of the time across 2,429 trading days since 2017, 2.5× what the same hours get when each day's hours are shuffled into a random order (12.6%). The strongest single hour was 09:00–10:00.Does the 8:30 news candle show the direction of the day?It is big, but it does not tell you the day's direction. The 08:30 New York candle averaged 1.8× the range of the candles around it (3.7× on jobs-report Fridays), yet the 08:30–09:00 move pointed the same way as the rest of the US day on only 49.4% of 26,239 days, against 49.9% for the same test an hour earlier. A coin gives 50%.Does the London open set the direction for the day?No. The first hour of London (02:00–03:00 New York) pointed the same way as the rest of the London and New York morning on 50.1% of 26,246 days — a coin flip, and the same as the hour before London opens (50.1%). Following it averaged 0.00R ± 0.01 a trade.Does the opening range breakout work on gold?On gold, slightly, before costs. Trading the first break of the 09:30–09:45 New York range — stop at the other side, held to 16:00 — averaged +0.12R ± 0.04 a trade over 2,394 trades since 2017, number 4 of 13 markets tested. With a 2R target it averaged +0.09R ± 0.03.What time does EUR/USD make its high or low of the day?Most often between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed EUR/USD's high or low of the day 29.5% of the time across 2,478 trading days since 2017, 2.4× what the same hours get when each day's hours are shuffled into a random order (12.5%). The strongest single hour was 10:00–11:00.Best time to tradeFree tool Risk / reward calculatorFree tool Backtest sample size calculatorFree tool

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