CRTLAB
MarketsToolsFeaturesPricingBlogPartners
DatabentoTradingViewLog inOpen chart

CRTLAB Answers · measured, not opinion

Does the 8:30 news candle show the direction of the day?

Answered with real trades on 13 markets of CRTLAB's own price history, 2017–2026. The rules were fixed before any result was seen, and every one of them is on this page.

The answer

It is big, but it does not tell you the day's direction. The 08:30 New York candle averaged 1.8× the range of the candles around it (3.7× on jobs-report Fridays), yet the 08:30–09:00 move pointed the same way as the rest of the US day on only 49.4% of 26,239 days, against 49.9% for the same test an hour earlier. A coin gives 50%.

Days measured26,239
Size vs neighbours1.8×
Same way as the day49.4%
Control (07:30)49.9%
Measured 2 November 2026 · data to 30 October 2026Replay 08:30 on gold

The short answer

Following the 08:30–09:00 move at 09:00 (stop at the far side of that half hour, 2R target, out at 16:00) averaged −0.02R ± 0.01 over 26,064 trades. On first-Friday jobs days it was worse: −0.11R ± 0.03 over 1,209. The candle moves price; it does not choose the side the day finishes on.

On gold

Gold's 08:30 candle averaged 1.8× its neighbours, and 3.6× on jobs Fridays. Its 08:30–09:00 move matched the rest of the day on 49.3% of 2,359 days (control 51.6%), and following it averaged −0.01R ± 0.03.

By day type

First Friday of the month is when the US jobs report usually lands; Thursday carries weekly jobless claims. "Bigger than 2×" is the share of days the 08:30 candle's range was more than twice its neighbours' average.

DaysCountSize vs neighboursBigger than 2×Same way as the dayControl (07:30)
First Fridays (jobs report)1,2023.70×72.2%47.3%45.1%
Thursdays (claims)5,3221.99×34.9%48.8%49.4%
Other days19,7151.57×16.7%49.7%50.3%
All days26,2391.80×22.8%49.4%49.9%

Every market

The 08:30 candle, market by market.

MarketSinceDaysSize vs neighboursOn jobs FridaysSame way as the dayControlFollowing it
Nasdaq 10020172,3951.9×3.6×50.5%50.2%−0.04R ± 0.03
S&P 50020172,3471.9×3.8×49.3%48.8%−0.07R ± 0.03
Dow Jones (US30)20172,3861.9×3.8×49.5%49.5%−0.02R ± 0.03
DAX (GER40)20253911.4×2.5×48.6%47.4%−0.01R ± 0.07
Gold (XAU/USD)20172,3591.8×3.6×49.3%51.6%−0.01R ± 0.03
Silver (XAG/USD)20172,3311.7×3.3×48.7%52.1%−0.03R ± 0.03
Crude oil (WTI)20172,3741.1×1.4×49.0%50.8%−0.04R ± 0.03
EUR/USD20172,3981.9×4.3×50.1%48.3%+0.02R ± 0.03
GBP/USD20172,3531.8×4.1×50.0%50.4%+0.04R ± 0.03
USD/JPY20172,3582.2×5.0×50.4%49.9%−0.01R ± 0.03
AUD/USD20172,3342.0×4.4×49.2%49.7%−0.03R ± 0.03
Bitcoin20221,1081.8×3.1×46.8%48.3%−0.06R ± 0.04
Ethereum20221,1051.7×3.0×48.9%47.9%−0.10R ± 0.04

What this means for your trading

  • Expect the 08:30 candle to be large, especially on the first Friday. Size your risk for it or stand aside.
  • Do not read the 08:30 push as the day's bias. It agreed with the rest of the day no more often than a coin did.
  • Replay news days with the future hidden and practise waiting for what happens after the candle. The calendar in CRTLAB marks every release.

Test it yourself

Gold on the 5-minute chart. Pick a news day, replay from 08:00 New York and decide what you would do after the 08:30 candle, before you see the rest. The chart opens in your browser with nothing to install — 10,000 candles free, no card. Replay 08:30 on gold.

How we measured it

CRTLAB's own 5-minute price history, 3 January 2017 to 30 October 2026, on 13 markets: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones (US30), DAX (GER40), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude oil (WTI), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, Ethereum (DAX (GER40) from 2025, Bitcoin from 2022, Ethereum from 2022). A trading day runs 18:00 to 17:00 New York and carries the date it ends on; Monday to Friday only, and a day counts only if it is complete (half-holidays are left out).

Size: the range of the 08:30–08:35 New York candle against the average range of the six 5-minute candles either side (08:00–08:25 and 08:40–09:05), all in units of the average daily range of the 20 days before.

Direction: the move from the 08:30 open to the 08:55 close against the move from the 09:00 open to the 15:55 close. THE CONTROL is the identical test one hour earlier (07:30–08:00 against 08:00–16:00), a half hour with no scheduled US data. First Friday = a Friday on the 1st to 7th of the month (jobs report, usually).

The trade: enter at the 09:00 open in the direction of the 08:30–09:00 move; stop at the far side of the 08:30–09:00 range; target 2R; out at the 16:00 price. Stops under 0.02 ADR away are skipped. No spread or commission is included; a candle that reaches both the stop and the target counts as a loss, because we cannot see inside a candle. Every rule and every split was fixed before any result was seen.

Frequently asked questions

Does the 8:30 news candle show the direction of the day?

It is big, but it does not tell you the day's direction. The 08:30 New York candle averaged 1.8× the range of the candles around it (3.7× on jobs-report Fridays), yet the 08:30–09:00 move pointed the same way as the rest of the US day on only 49.4% of 26,239 days, against 49.9% for the same test an hour earlier. A coin gives 50%.

How big is the 8:30 candle on gold?

Gold's 08:30 New York candle averaged 1.8× the range of the candles around it, and 3.6× on the first Friday of the month.

Should you trade the NFP candle?

Following the 08:30–09:00 move on first-Friday jobs days averaged −0.11R a trade over 1,209 trades, before spread, which widens on news.

→RelatedAll answers
Does the ICT Silver Bullet work?No edge on its own. Across 46,392 Silver Bullet trades on 13 markets since 2017, the setup averaged +0.02R a trade in the AM window — breakeven before spread and commission.What time is the high or low of the day made?Between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed the day's high or low 27.8% of the time across 27,187 trading days — about 2.2× what the same hours would get if the day's moves came in a random order (12.5%).Is the ICT Judas swing real?Not on average. The first move after midnight New York pointed the OPPOSITE way to the day's move on only 43.0% of 26,125 days — it continued more often than it reversed, in every one of 13 markets. After a large early move, the day went the same way 74.0% of the time.Does the opening range breakout work?Slightly, before costs. Trading the first break of the 09:30–09:45 New York range — stop at the other side, held to 16:00 — averaged +0.09R ± 0.01 a trade over 26,894 trades, and was positive on 13 of 13 markets. The win rate is low; the edge comes from the days that run.How often do gaps fill on the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow?58.4% of opening gaps on the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow filled the same day, across 6,984 gaps since 2017 — 82.0% of small ones (under 0.25%) but only 22.8% of gaps over 1%. A level the same distance on the other side was reached 55.5% of the time, so gaps fill a little more than chance, not much.Which day of the week makes the weekly high or low?Monday and Friday — 55.6% of weekly highs and 58.3% of weekly lows across 4,767 weeks. But the same weeks with their days shuffled into a random order give 58.5% and 57.7%: the Monday/Friday pattern is the arithmetic of the week's two ends, not market behaviour.How often is the previous week's high or low taken?87.6% of weeks took last week's high or low, across 4,005 weeks since 2017: the high 52.5%, the low 44.8%, both 9.8%. When it was taken, it was most often on Monday — 51.7% of the weeks that took the high.Does price return to the midnight open?About as often as it reaches any level the same distance away. From 08:30 New York, price came back to the midnight open on 58.2% of 25,401 days by 16:00 — and reached a mirror level, the same distance on the other side, on 58.3%. The midnight open is not a magnet; it is reached because it is close.Do ICT macros work?No more than the time around them. Across 214,928 macro windows on 13 markets since 2017, a macro moved 0.98× as much as the same-length windows just before and after it, and out-moved both neighbours about a third of the time — what chance gives.Does yesterday's daily candle predict today's?Barely. After an up day, the next day closed up 50.5% of the time; after a down day, 53.8% — against 52.1% for every day, across 26,801 days on 13 markets. If anything, a down day is followed by a slightly better chance of an up day, not a down one.Does London sweep the Asian range and reverse?Usually not. After London (02:00–05:00 New York) took one side of the Asian range, price went on to the other side first on 41.1% of 9,037 days, and ran a full Asian range further the same way first on 44.7%. Both levels are the same distance away, so a reversal pattern would show the first number well ahead; it is behind, on 11 of 13 markets.What time does gold make its high or low of the day?Most often between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed gold's high or low of the day 31.3% of the time across 2,429 trading days since 2017, 2.5× what the same hours get when each day's hours are shuffled into a random order (12.6%). The strongest single hour was 09:00–10:00.Does the London open set the direction for the day?No. The first hour of London (02:00–03:00 New York) pointed the same way as the rest of the London and New York morning on 50.1% of 26,246 days — a coin flip, and the same as the hour before London opens (50.1%). Following it averaged 0.00R ± 0.01 a trade.Does the opening range breakout work on gold?On gold, slightly, before costs. Trading the first break of the 09:30–09:45 New York range — stop at the other side, held to 16:00 — averaged +0.12R ± 0.04 a trade over 2,394 trades since 2017, number 4 of 13 markets tested. With a 2R target it averaged +0.09R ± 0.03.What time does EUR/USD make its high or low of the day?Most often between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed EUR/USD's high or low of the day 29.5% of the time across 2,478 trading days since 2017, 2.4× what the same hours get when each day's hours are shuffled into a random order (12.5%). The strongest single hour was 10:00–11:00.Backtest goldFree toolBest time to tradeFree toolAverage daily rangeFree tool

The average says what usually happens. Replay tells you if your version beats it.

Replay real market history candle by candle with the future hidden, take the setup by your own rules, and every trade is scored for you — on 38 markets and every timeframe.

Replay 08:30 on gold
10,000 candles freeNo card to startData & charts DatabentoTradingView
CRTLAB

Replay real market history candle by candle, trade it as it forms, and find out what your strategy is actually worth.

Version
v1.11.0
Last updated
3 Nov 2026
Email us
crtlab@proton.me
Based in
United Kingdom

Product

  • Features
  • Pricing
  • FAQ
  • Prop firm simulator
  • Measured answers
  • Market recaps
  • Blog
  • Backtesting software
More
  • Market replay
  • Reference
  • Candle-by-candle replay
  • Prop firm practice
  • Two synced charts
  • Real volume

Free tools

  • Futures tick value calculator
  • Best time to trade
  • Position size calculator
  • Risk/reward calculator
  • Margin & leverage calculator
  • Pip calculator
  • Compounding calculator
  • Prop firm challenge calculator
More
  • Backtest sample size calculator
  • Profit factor calculator
  • Risk of ruin calculator
  • Fibonacci calculator
  • Pivot point calculator
  • Drawdown recovery calculator
  • Average daily range
  • CRT statistics
  • Asian range statistics
  • PDH / PDL statistics
  • FVG statistics
  • Volume profile statistics
  • Order block statistics
  • Session & kill zone times

Backtest

  • NAS100
  • US30 (Dow)
  • Gold (XAUUSD)
  • Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
  • DAX (GER40)
  • WTI crude
  • Forex
  • All markets & concepts

Strategy

  • CRT backtester
  • Footprint chart
  • SMT divergence
  • Volume profile
  • ICT backtesting
  • SMC backtesting
  • FVG backtester
  • Order block backtester
More
  • Liquidity sweep backtester
  • Market structure backtester
  • Order flow

Company

  • Log in
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Refunds
  • Risk disclaimer
  • Partnerships
  • Site map
Market data provided byDatabentoTradingViewDatabento for futures, forex and stocks · charts by TradingView
CRTLAB
© 2026 CRTLAB. All rights reserved.Not financial advice. Past results do not guarantee future results.