CRTLAB Answers · measured, not opinion

Does yesterday's daily candle predict today's?

Name: Does Yesterday's Candle Predict Today? 26,801 Days Measured
Creator: CRTLAB
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Answered with real trades on 13 markets of CRTLAB's own price history, 2017–2026. The rules were fixed before any result was seen, and every one of them is on this page.

The answer

Barely. After an up day, the next day closed up 50.5% of the time; after a down day, 53.8% — against 52.1% for every day, across 26,801 days on 13 markets. If anything, a down day is followed by a slightly better chance of an up day, not a down one.

Days measured26,801

Up after an up day50.5%

Up after a down day53.8%

Up, any day52.1%

Measured 2 November 2026 · data to 19 October 2026Replay daily candles on NAS100

The short answer

After a big up day (range over 1.5× the 20-day average) the next day closed up 50.3% of 1,524 times; after a big down day, 54.1% of 1,825. Yesterday's colour on its own is not a bias.

After an inside day

An inside day (high below and low above the day before) was followed by a break of its high first on 51.0% of 3,592 days and its low first on 42.4%; neither side broke on 6.5%.

Every market

Market	Days	Up, any day	After up	After down	Inside day: high first
Nasdaq 100	2,405	55.4%	54.2%	57.0%	55.0%
S&P 500	2,405	55.1%	54.7%	55.7%	53.3%
Dow Jones (US30)	2,403	54.1%	53.4%	55.0%	52.8%
DAX (GER40)	385	51.7%	49.7%	53.8%	58.0%
Gold (XAU/USD)	2,396	52.5%	48.4%	57.0%	49.4%
Silver (XAG/USD)	2,394	50.5%	46.8%	54.1%	49.6%
Crude oil (WTI)	2,414	51.8%	50.6%	53.2%	55.1%
EUR/USD	2,450	49.0%	49.3%	48.9%	49.7%
GBP/USD	2,450	50.2%	49.6%	50.7%	48.4%
USD/JPY	2,450	52.7%	50.5%	55.3%	53.5%
AUD/USD	2,452	51.5%	50.1%	53.0%	48.8%
Bitcoin	1,100	49.6%	45.7%	53.5%	46.2%
Ethereum	1,097	49.8%	47.6%	51.9%	48.0%

Test it yourself

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How we measured it

CRTLAB's own 5-minute price history, 3 January 2017 to 19 October 2026, on 13 markets: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones (US30), DAX (GER40), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude oil (WTI), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, Ethereum (DAX (GER40) from 2025, Bitcoin from 2022, Ethereum from 2022). A trading day runs 18:00 to 17:00 New York and carries the date it ends on; Monday to Friday only, and a day counts only if it is complete (half-holidays are left out).

The daily candle runs 18:00 to 17:00 New York. Up = it closed above its open. Big = its range was over 1.5× the average range of the 20 days before. Inside day = its high below and low above the day before; the next day's first 5-minute candle beyond either side decides which broke first (a candle beyond both is ambiguous and not counted for either).

Every rule was fixed before any result was seen.

Frequently asked questions

Does yesterday's candle predict today's?

Which way does an inside day break?

Its high broke first on 51.0% of 3,592 inside days and its low on 42.4%.

→RelatedAll answers

Does the ICT Silver Bullet work?No edge on its own. Across 46,392 Silver Bullet trades on 13 markets since 2017, the setup averaged +0.02R a trade in the AM window — breakeven before spread and commission.What time is the high or low of the day made?Between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed the day's high or low 27.8% of the time across 27,187 trading days — about 2.2× what the same hours would get if the day's moves came in a random order (12.5%).Is the ICT Judas swing real?Not on average. The first move after midnight New York pointed the OPPOSITE way to the day's move on only 43.0% of 26,125 days — it continued more often than it reversed, in every one of 13 markets. After a large early move, the day went the same way 74.0% of the time.Does the opening range breakout work?Slightly, before costs. Trading the first break of the 09:30–09:45 New York range — stop at the other side, held to 16:00 — averaged +0.09R ± 0.01 a trade over 26,894 trades, and was positive on 13 of 13 markets. The win rate is low; the edge comes from the days that run.How often do gaps fill on the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow?58.4% of opening gaps on the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow filled the same day, across 6,984 gaps since 2017 — 82.0% of small ones (under 0.25%) but only 22.8% of gaps over 1%. A level the same distance on the other side was reached 55.5% of the time, so gaps fill a little more than chance, not much.Which day of the week makes the weekly high or low?Monday and Friday — 55.6% of weekly highs and 58.3% of weekly lows across 4,767 weeks. But the same weeks with their days shuffled into a random order give 58.5% and 57.7%: the Monday/Friday pattern is the arithmetic of the week's two ends, not market behaviour.How often is the previous week's high or low taken?87.6% of weeks took last week's high or low, across 4,005 weeks since 2017: the high 52.5%, the low 44.8%, both 9.8%. When it was taken, it was most often on Monday — 51.7% of the weeks that took the high.Does price return to the midnight open?About as often as it reaches any level the same distance away. From 08:30 New York, price came back to the midnight open on 58.2% of 25,401 days by 16:00 — and reached a mirror level, the same distance on the other side, on 58.3%. The midnight open is not a magnet; it is reached because it is close.Do ICT macros work?No more than the time around them. Across 214,928 macro windows on 13 markets since 2017, a macro moved 0.98× as much as the same-length windows just before and after it, and out-moved both neighbours about a third of the time — what chance gives.Does London sweep the Asian range and reverse?Usually not. After London (02:00–05:00 New York) took one side of the Asian range, price went on to the other side first on 41.1% of 9,037 days, and ran a full Asian range further the same way first on 44.7%. Both levels are the same distance away, so a reversal pattern would show the first number well ahead; it is behind, on 11 of 13 markets.What time does gold make its high or low of the day?Most often between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed gold's high or low of the day 31.3% of the time across 2,429 trading days since 2017, 2.5× what the same hours get when each day's hours are shuffled into a random order (12.6%). The strongest single hour was 09:00–10:00.Does the 8:30 news candle show the direction of the day?It is big, but it does not tell you the day's direction. The 08:30 New York candle averaged 1.8× the range of the candles around it (3.7× on jobs-report Fridays), yet the 08:30–09:00 move pointed the same way as the rest of the US day on only 49.4% of 26,239 days, against 49.9% for the same test an hour earlier. A coin gives 50%.Does the London open set the direction for the day?No. The first hour of London (02:00–03:00 New York) pointed the same way as the rest of the London and New York morning on 50.1% of 26,246 days — a coin flip, and the same as the hour before London opens (50.1%). Following it averaged 0.00R ± 0.01 a trade.Does the opening range breakout work on gold?On gold, slightly, before costs. Trading the first break of the 09:30–09:45 New York range — stop at the other side, held to 16:00 — averaged +0.12R ± 0.04 a trade over 2,394 trades since 2017, number 4 of 13 markets tested. With a 2R target it averaged +0.09R ± 0.03.What time does EUR/USD make its high or low of the day?Most often between 08:00 and 12:00 New York. Those four hours printed EUR/USD's high or low of the day 29.5% of the time across 2,478 trading days since 2017, 2.4× what the same hours get when each day's hours are shuffled into a random order (12.5%). The strongest single hour was 10:00–11:00.CRT statisticsFree tool Previous day high & low statisticsFree tool

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