CRTLAB Answers · measured, not opinion
Does the ICT Silver Bullet work?
Answered with real trades on 13 markets of CRTLAB's own price history, 2017–2026. The rules were fixed before any result was seen, and every one of them is on this page.
The answer
No edge on its own. Across 46,392 Silver Bullet trades on 13 markets since 2017, the setup averaged +0.02R a trade in the AM window — breakeven before spread and commission.
The short answer
A 2R target needs a win rate above 33.3% to make money. The AM window won 29.8% of the time, lost 62.1%, and 8.1% of trades were still open at the 16:00 close. The PM window (+0.01R) and the London window (−0.01R) came out the same way: the hour does not turn a fair value gap into an edge.
Of the 39 market-and-window combinations, 2 finished clearly above zero (S&P 500 AM, USD/JPY London). With 39 tests, one or two will clear that bar by luck alone, so treat them as a lead to test, not a result.
All three Silver Bullet windows
The same rules in each of ICT's three windows, every market pooled. "Average a trade" is the expectancy in R with its standard error; anything within about two standard errors of zero is no edge.
| Window (New York) | Trades | Won | Lost | Open at close | Average a trade (2R) | At 1R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM Silver Bullet · 10:00–11:00 | 15,204 | 29.8% | 62.1% | 8.1% | +0.02R ± 0.01 | +0.01R |
| PM Silver Bullet · 14:00–15:00 | 15,088 | 24.5% | 56.0% | 19.5% | +0.01R ± 0.01 | +0.01R |
| London Silver Bullet · 03:00–04:00 | 16,100 | 33.0% | 66.9% | 0.2% | −0.01R ± 0.01 | −0.02R |
Every market, AM Silver Bullet
The 10:00–11:00 window on each market on its own, best to worst. S&P 500 did best at +0.12R ± 0.04 over 1,289 trades.
| Market | Since | Trades | Won | Average a trade | Longs | Shorts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 2017 | 1,289 | 34.9% | +0.12R ± 0.04 | +0.17R | +0.07R |
| Dow Jones (US30) | 2017 | 1,285 | 32.4% | +0.06R ± 0.04 | +0.07R | +0.06R |
| Bitcoin | 2022 | 614 | 32.7% | +0.05R ± 0.06 | −0.02R | +0.14R |
| Nasdaq 100 | 2017 | 1,301 | 31.4% | +0.04R ± 0.04 | +0.09R | −0.02R |
| Ethereum | 2022 | 631 | 32.3% | +0.03R ± 0.06 | +0.02R | +0.04R |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 2017 | 1,282 | 27.5% | +0.01R ± 0.04 | +0.06R | −0.05R |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | 2017 | 1,334 | 27.6% | +0.01R ± 0.04 | −0.02R | +0.04R |
| AUD/USD | 2017 | 1,487 | 28.9% | 0.00R ± 0.04 | +0.04R | −0.03R |
| Crude oil (WTI) | 2017 | 1,334 | 29.3% | −0.02R ± 0.04 | +0.05R | −0.10R |
| EUR/USD | 2017 | 1,446 | 27.8% | −0.02R ± 0.04 | −0.04R | +0.01R |
| DAX (GER40) | 2025 | 237 | 29.5% | −0.03R ± 0.09 | 0.00R | −0.06R |
| GBP/USD | 2017 | 1,486 | 28.1% | −0.03R ± 0.04 | −0.03R | −0.02R |
| USD/JPY | 2017 | 1,478 | 28.3% | −0.03R ± 0.04 | +0.06R | −0.12R |
Year by year
If the Silver Bullet had an edge that stopped working, or started recently, it would show here. The AM window was positive in 6 of 10 years, and no year was far from zero.
Trading only with the move
A common reading of the model is to take only gaps in the direction price is already moving — the "draw on liquidity". We fixed that variant before measuring: a gap counts only if price has moved its way from the window's open to the gap's third candle. It averaged +0.02R over 13,765 AM trades, against +0.02R for every gap. The filter did not change the result.
Longs averaged +0.04R and shorts −0.01R in the AM window. A fair value gap formed in 83.6% of AM windows, and price came back to fill the entry 66.9% of the time.
What this means if you trade the Silver Bullet
- The window and the gap are a starting point, not an edge. Taken mechanically, the setup paid roughly zero over 46,392 trades.
- Whatever you add is where any edge has to come from — a liquidity sweep first, a market structure shift, a higher-timeframe bias, or a tighter target. Measure that version against these numbers.
- Spread and commission are not in these results. On a breakeven setup they are the difference between flat and losing, so your own costs decide the real number.
Test it yourself
S&P 500 on the 5-minute chart, fair value gaps drawn. Pick any day, replay 10:00–11:00 one candle at a time, and score your own version against +0.02R. The chart opens in your browser with nothing to install — 10,000 candles free, no card. Replay the Silver Bullet on S&P 500.
How we measured it
CRTLAB's own 5-minute price history, 3 January 2017 to 19 October 2026: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones (US30), DAX (GER40), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude oil (WTI), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, Ethereum. Bitcoin and Ethereum from 2022, the DAX from 2025. Monday to Friday New York trading days only; half-holidays are left out.
The windows, in New York time: London 03:00–04:00, AM 10:00–11:00, PM 14:00–15:00. The setup is the first fair value gap that forms inside the window: three consecutive 5-minute candles where the first candle's high is below the third candle's low (bullish), or the mirror (bearish). Gaps smaller than a tenth of the average true range of the 14 candles before them are noise and are not counted. One trade per window per day.
Entry: a limit order at the gap's near edge, working until the window closes; if price never comes back, there is no trade. Stop: beyond the first candle of the gap. Target: 2R, and 1R as a variant. Every trade is closed at the 16:00 close if neither is hit.
If a candle reaches both the stop and the target, it counts as a loss, because we cannot see inside a candle; the candle that fills the order can stop it out but cannot win it. No spread or commission. All rules, both variants and every split were fixed before any result was seen.
Frequently asked questions
Does the ICT Silver Bullet work?
No edge on its own. Across 46,392 Silver Bullet trades on 13 markets since 2017, the setup averaged +0.02R a trade in the AM window — breakeven before spread and commission.
What is the win rate of the ICT Silver Bullet?
With a 2R target, the AM Silver Bullet (10:00–11:00 New York) won 29.8% of 15,204 trades, the PM window 24.5% and the London window 33.0%. With a 1R target the AM window won 49.4%. A 2R target breaks even at 33.3%.
What times are the ICT Silver Bullet?
Three one-hour windows in New York time: 03:00–04:00 (London), 10:00–11:00 (AM) and 14:00–15:00 (PM). The AM window is the one most traders mean.
Which market is best for the Silver Bullet?
In the AM window, S&P 500 did best at +0.12R ± 0.04 over 1,289 trades, and Dow Jones (US30) came second at +0.06R. With 39 market-and-window tests, a best result is partly luck; test it on your own rules before trusting it.
How can I backtest the Silver Bullet myself?
Open a 5-minute chart on CRTLAB with fair value gaps drawn, go to any day, and replay 10:00–11:00 New York one candle at a time with the future hidden. Take the setup by your own rules and the trades are logged and scored for you.
The average says what usually happens. Replay tells you if your version beats it.
Replay real market history candle by candle with the future hidden, take the setup by your own rules, and every trade is scored for you — on 38 markets and every timeframe.
Replay the Silver Bullet on S&P 500