How Markets React to PCE
Every PCE inflation release, measured across gold, indices, forex and oil from 1-minute bars: the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes, what it swept, and whether the first move held. A new page lands the morning after each release.
First hour after PCE, on average
24 releases so far. The first-hour range as a share of each market's normal full day.
| Market | First hour vs a normal day | Reversed within the hour | Swept a key level |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 36% | 5 of 24 | 4 of 24 |
| GBPUSD | 34% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 24 |
| Silver | 33% | 6 of 24 | 3 of 24 |
| USDJPY | 32% | 6 of 23 | 0 of 23 |
| Gold | 32% | 4 of 24 | 4 of 24 |
| Ethereum | 29% | 2 of 22 | 1 of 22 |
| AUDUSD | 28% | 9 of 23 | 2 of 23 |
| Bitcoin | 28% | 7 of 22 | 1 of 22 |
| Oil | 27% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 24 |
| NAS100 | 27% | 3 of 24 | 3 of 24 |
| S&P 500 | 26% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 24 |
| US30 | 25% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 24 |
Every PCE release
Frequently asked questions
Which market moves most on PCE?
Across 24 PCE releases measured, EURUSD moved most in the first hour relative to its normal day (36% of an average day's range), then GBPUSD (34%) and Silver (33%).
Does the first move after PCE hold?
EURUSD: reversed within the hour 5 of 24 times; GBPUSD: reversed within the hour 8 of 24 times; Silver: reversed within the hour 6 of 24 times; USDJPY: reversed within the hour 6 of 23 times.
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