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ECB: next release & how markets react

Every ECB rate decision release measured across gold, indices, forex and oil from 1-minute bars. Dates for every release: economic calendar.

First hour after ECB

Average of the last 24 · share of a normal day
MarketFirst hour vs a normal dayReversedSwept a level
EURUSD71%6 of 249 of 24
GBPUSD51%8 of 245 of 24
USDJPY51%10 of 243 of 24
AUDUSD44%12 of 242 of 24
Silver43%10 of 242 of 24
S&P 50038%6 of 246 of 24

Every ECB release

67 measured
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 42 pips in the first hour — 63% of a normal dayThursday, 29 October 2026 · 09:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 36.5 pips in the first hour — 82% of a normal dayThursday, 10 September 2026 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 28 pips in the first hour — 53% of a normal dayThursday, 23 July 2026 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 22 pips in the first hour — 32% of a normal dayThursday, 30 April 2026 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 59 pips in the first hour — 65% of a normal dayThursday, 19 March 2026 · 09:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 39.3 pips in the first hour — 71% of a normal dayThursday, 18 December 2025 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 85 pips in the first hour — 113% of a normal dayThursday, 11 September 2025 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 34 pips in the first hour — 42% of a normal dayThursday, 24 July 2025 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 50 pips in the first hour — 51% of a normal dayThursday, 5 June 2025 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 42.5 pips in the first hour — 31% of a normal dayThursday, 17 April 2025 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 65.5 pips in the first hour — 75% of a normal dayThursday, 30 January 2025 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 33 pips in the first hour — 39% of a normal dayThursday, 12 December 2024 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 60.5 pips in the first hour — 96% of a normal dayThursday, 17 October 2024 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 31.5 pips in the first hour — 51% of a normal dayThursday, 12 September 2024 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 38.5 pips in the first hour — 77% of a normal day

Trade the next release before it happens

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Frequently asked questions

Which market moves most on ECB?

Across 24 ECB releases measured, EURUSD moved most in the first hour relative to its normal day (71% of an average day's range), then GBPUSD (51%) and USDJPY (51%).

Does the first move after ECB hold?

EURUSD: reversed within the hour 6 of 24 times; GBPUSD: reversed within the hour 8 of 24 times; USDJPY: reversed within the hour 10 of 24 times; AUDUSD: reversed within the hour 12 of 24 times.

How can I practise trading ECB?

Open a past ECB day on CRTLAB and replay it candle by candle with your own entry, stop and target. Free every day, in the browser.

CRTLAB

Replay real market history candle by candle, trade it as it forms, and find out what your strategy is actually worth.

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US3037%5 of 244 of 24
NAS10036%8 of 241 of 24
Oil32%10 of 241 of 24
Bitcoin29%9 of 241 of 24
Ethereum27%8 of 241 of 24
Gold0%9 of 245 of 24

Actual vs forecast

Last 9
Oct. 2025: actual 2.15%, forecast 2.15%2.15%Oct ’25Dec. 2025: actual 2.15%, forecast 2.15%2.15%Dec ’25Feb. 2026: actual 2.15%, forecast 2.15%2.15%Feb ’26Mar. 2026: actual 2.15%, forecast 2.15%2.15%Mar ’26Apr. 2026: actual 2.15%, forecast 2.15%2.15%Apr ’26Jun. 2026: actual 2.4%, forecast 2.4%2.4%Jun ’26Jul. 2026: actual 2.4%, forecast 2.4%2.4%Jul ’26Sep. 2026: actual 2.65%, forecast 2.65%2.65%Sept ’26Oct. 2026: actual 2.65%, forecast 2.65%2.65%Oct ’26

Green beat the forecast, red missed. The line is the forecast.

Thursday, 6 June 2024 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 36 pips in the first hour — 61% of a normal dayThursday, 11 April 2024 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 30 pips in the first hour — 58% of a normal dayThursday, 7 March 2024 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 48 pips in the first hour — 71% of a normal dayThursday, 25 January 2024 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 72 pips in the first hour — 104% of a normal dayThursday, 14 December 2023 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 40 pips in the first hour — 54% of a normal dayThursday, 26 October 2023 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 93.5 pips in the first hour — 137% of a normal dayThursday, 14 September 2023 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 55 pips in the first hour — 82% of a normal dayThursday, 15 June 2023 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 85 pips in the first hour — 108% of a normal dayThursday, 4 May 2023 · 08:15 New York
  • ECB: EURUSD moved 69.5 pips in the first hour — 76% of a normal dayThursday, 16 March 2023 · 09:15 New York
    • Show all 67
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 75 pips in the first hour — 83% of a normal dayThursday, 2 February 2023 · 08:15 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 67.5 pips in the first hour — 55% of a normal dayThursday, 27 October 2022 · 08:15 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 99 pips in the first hour — 91% of a normal dayThursday, 21 July 2022 · 08:15 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 87 pips in the first hour — 94% of a normal dayThursday, 9 June 2022 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 85 pips in the first hour — 79% of a normal dayThursday, 10 March 2022 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 75 pips in the first hour — 107% of a normal dayThursday, 3 February 2022 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 43 pips in the first hour — 91% of a normal dayThursday, 28 October 2021 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 26 pips in the first hour — 55% of a normal dayThursday, 9 September 2021 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 43.5 pips in the first hour — 76% of a normal dayThursday, 22 July 2021 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 46.5 pips in the first hour — 74% of a normal dayThursday, 10 June 2021 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 33.5 pips in the first hour — 46% of a normal dayThursday, 11 March 2021 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 30 pips in the first hour — 39% of a normal dayThursday, 21 January 2021 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 29.5 pips in the first hour — 45% of a normal dayThursday, 29 October 2020 · 08:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 64 pips in the first hour — 75% of a normal dayThursday, 10 September 2020 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 28.5 pips in the first hour — 37% of a normal dayThursday, 16 July 2020 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 68.5 pips in the first hour — 88% of a normal dayThursday, 4 June 2020 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 104.5 pips in the first hour — 116% of a normal dayThursday, 12 March 2020 · 08:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 27 pips in the first hour — 59% of a normal dayThursday, 23 January 2020 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 25 pips in the first hour — 59% of a normal dayThursday, 12 December 2019 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 18 pips in the first hour — 34% of a normal dayThursday, 24 October 2019 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 138.5 pips in the first hour — 259% of a normal dayThursday, 12 September 2019 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 64.5 pips in the first hour — 135% of a normal dayThursday, 25 July 2019 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 93 pips in the first hour — 187% of a normal dayThursday, 6 June 2019 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 39 pips in the first hour — 65% of a normal dayWednesday, 10 April 2019 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 54 pips in the first hour — 97% of a normal dayThursday, 7 March 2019 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 53.5 pips in the first hour — 74% of a normal dayThursday, 24 January 2019 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 52 pips in the first hour — 65% of a normal dayThursday, 13 December 2018 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 28 pips in the first hour — 35% of a normal dayThursday, 25 October 2018 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 30 pips in the first hour — 41% of a normal dayThursday, 26 July 2018 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 144.5 pips in the first hour — 172% of a normal dayThursday, 14 June 2018 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 52 pips in the first hour — 71% of a normal dayThursday, 26 April 2018 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 71.5 pips in the first hour — 78% of a normal dayThursday, 8 March 2018 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 83 pips in the first hour — 90% of a normal dayThursday, 25 January 2018 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 39 pips in the first hour — 54% of a normal dayThursday, 14 December 2017 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 78.5 pips in the first hour — 115% of a normal dayThursday, 26 October 2017 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 100.5 pips in the first hour — 112% of a normal dayThursday, 7 September 2017 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 55 pips in the first hour — 74% of a normal dayThursday, 20 July 2017 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 53.5 pips in the first hour — 75% of a normal dayThursday, 27 April 2017 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 35 pips in the first hour — 51% of a normal dayThursday, 9 March 2017 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 75 pips in the first hour — 77% of a normal dayThursday, 19 January 2017 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 219.5 pips in the first hour — 214% of a normal dayThursday, 8 December 2016 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 43.5 pips in the first hour — 59% of a normal dayThursday, 8 September 2016 · 07:45 New York
    • ECB: EURUSD moved 52.5 pips in the first hour — 65% of a normal dayThursday, 21 July 2016 · 07:45 New York
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