How GBPUSD reacts to UK CPI
Every UK CPI (inflation) release since 19 Jul 2016 measured on GBPUSD's 1-minute chart: 124 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 124 releasesAcross 124 UK CPI releases since 19 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, GBPUSD's first hour averaged 41% of a normal day's range, about 35.7 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 17% of the time.
When UK CPI came in above forecast (52 times), GBPUSD was higher an hour later 65% of the time, up 0.05% on average. When UK CPI came in below forecast (46 times), GBPUSD was higher an hour later 15% of the time, down 0.18% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 17 Jun 2026: 84 pips, 121% of a normal day.
Every UK CPI release on GBPUSD
124 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 3.5 | 3.4 | -0.02% | +0.01% | 26 pips · 34% | – | Replay |
| 16 Sept 2026 | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.08% | -0.07% | 44 pips · 78% | – | Replay |
| 19 Aug 2026 | 2.9 | 2.9 | +0.01% | +0.05% | 31 pips · 50% | – | Replay |
| 22 Jul 2026 | 2.6 | 2.7 | +0.04% | -0.01% | 23 pips · 30% | – | Replay |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 2.8 | 3 | -0.05% | -0.12% | 84 pips · 121% | – | Replay |
| 20 May 2026 | 2.8 | 3 | -0.04% | -0.04% | 30 pips · 33% | – | Replay |
| 22 Apr 2026 | 3.3 | 3.3 | -0.03% | -0.06% | 15 pips · 16% | – | Replay |
| 25 Mar 2026 | 3 | 3 | +0.08% | +0.07% | 26 pips · 21% | – | Replay |
| 18 Feb 2026 | 3 | 3 | +0.00% | -0.01% | 39 pips · 38% | yes | Replay |
| 21 Jan 2026 | 3.4 | 3.3 | +0.03% | +0.05% | 23 pips · 31% | – | Replay |
| 17 Dec 2025 | 3.2 | 3.5 | -0.24% | -0.40% | 62 pips · 76% | – | Replay |
| 19 Nov 2025 | 3.6 | 3.6 | -0.14% | -0.08% | 25 pips · 31% | – | Replay |
| 22 Oct 2025 | 3.8 | 4 | -0.30% | -0.36% | 65 pips · 78% | – | Replay |
| 17 Sept 2025 | 3.8 | 3.8 | -0.05% | -0.10% | 35 pips · 41% | – | Replay |
| 20 Aug 2025 | 3.8 | 3.7 | +0.04% | +0.02% | 29.5 pips · 34% | – | Replay |
| 16 Jul 2025 | 3.6 | 3.4 | +0.06% | +0.08% | 34 pips · 36% | – | Replay |
| 18 Jun 2025 | 3.4 | 3.4 | +0.05% | +0.14% | 27 pips · 30% | – | Replay |
| 21 May 2025 | 3.5 | 3.3 | -0.04% | +0.10% | 45 pips · 44% | yes | Replay |
| 16 Apr 2025 | 2.6 | 2.7 | -0.09% | -0.15% | 45 pips · 37% | – | Replay |
| 26 Mar 2025 | 2.8 | 2.9 | -0.14% | -0.22% | 39.5 pips · 48% | – | Replay |
| 19 Feb 2025 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.03% | -0.01% | 27 pips · 27% | – | Replay |
| 15 Jan 2025 | 2.5 | 2.6 | -0.07% | +0.30% | 80.5 pips · 73% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 2.6 | 2.6 | -0.11% | -0.18% | 56.5 pips · 65% | – | Replay |
| 20 Nov 2024 | 2.3 | 2.2 | +0.14% | +0.08% | 59 pips · 60% | – | Replay |
| 16 Oct 2024 | 1.7 | 1.9 | -0.39% | -0.64% | 89 pips · 96% | – | Replay |
| 18 Sept 2024 | 2.2 | 2.2 | +0.14% | +0.17% | 24 pips · 29% | – | Replay |
| 14 Aug 2024 | 2.2 | 2.3 | -0.27% | -0.20% | 54 pips · 73% | – | Replay |
| 17 Jul 2024 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.04% | +0.10% | 24 pips · 38% | – | Replay |
| 19 Jun 2024 | 2 | 2 | +0.11% | +0.17% | 37.5 pips · 52% | – | Replay |
| 22 May 2024 | 2.3 | 2.1 | +0.24% | +0.35% | 51 pips · 74% | – | Replay |
| 17 Apr 2024 | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.06% | +0.40% | 55.5 pips · 68% | – | Replay |
| 20 Mar 2024 | 3.4 | 3.5 | +0.06% | -0.01% | 33.5 pips · 53% | – | Replay |
| 14 Feb 2024 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.36% | -0.33% | 52 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
| 17 Jan 2024 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.14% | +0.34% | 51 pips · 57% | – | Replay |
| 20 Dec 2023 | 3.9 | 4.4 | -0.24% | -0.38% | 63 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
| 15 Nov 2023 | 4.6 | 4.8 | -0.13% | -0.14% | 56 pips · 58% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the UK CPI page.
Frequently asked questions
How does GBPUSD react to UK CPI?
Across 124 UK CPI releases since 19 Jul 2016, measured from 1-minute data, GBPUSD's first hour averaged 41% of a normal day's range, about 35.7 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 17% of the time.
Does GBPUSD go up or down after UK CPI?
Neither reliably on its own: GBPUSD was higher an hour after UK CPI on 44% of releases. When UK CPI came in above forecast (52 times), GBPUSD was higher an hour later 65% of the time, up 0.05% on average. When UK CPI came in below forecast (46 times), GBPUSD was higher an hour later 15% of the time, down 0.18% on average.
How much does GBPUSD move on UK CPI?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 35.7 pips. On 2% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 17 Jun 2026: 84 pips, 121% of a normal day.
When is the next UK CPI?
Wednesday, 18 November 2026 at 02:00 New York.
