How GBPUSD reacts to BoE
Every Bank of England rate decision release since 4 Aug 2016 measured on GBPUSD's 1-minute chart: 82 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 82 releasesAcross 82 BoE releases since 4 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, GBPUSD's first hour averaged 74% of a normal day's range, about 49.9 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 12% of the time.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 14 Sept 2017: 189 pips, 220% of a normal day.
Every BoE release on GBPUSD
82 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sept 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.28% | -0.25% | 55 pips · 96% | – | Replay |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.00% | -0.02% | 32 pips · 42% | yes | Replay |
| 18 Jun 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.08% | -0.13% | 29 pips · 39% | – | Replay |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.04% | -0.08% | 27 pips · 32% | – | Replay |
| 19 Mar 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.01% | +0.03% | 35 pips · 34% | – | Replay |
| 5 Feb 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -0.36% | -0.23% | 73 pips · 79% | – | Replay |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.25% | +0.32% | 58 pips · 71% | – | Replay |
| 6 Nov 2025 | 4 | 4 | -0.21% | +0.07% | 46 pips · 55% | – | Replay |
| 18 Sept 2025 | 4 | 4 | -0.04% | -0.19% | 48 pips · 55% | – | Replay |
| 7 Aug 2025 | 4 | 4 | +0.26% | +0.27% | 57 pips · 62% | – | Replay |
| 19 Jun 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | -0.10% | +0.16% | 46 pips · 51% | yes | Replay |
| 8 May 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.43% | +0.54% | 93 pips · 84% | – | Replay |
| 20 Mar 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.17% | -0.03% | 30.5 pips · 37% | – | Replay |
| 6 Feb 2025 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.37% | -0.39% | 73 pips · 65% | – | Replay |
| 19 Dec 2024 | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.25% | -0.15% | 49 pips · 54% | – | Replay |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.24% | +0.41% | 66 pips · 78% | – | Replay |
| 19 Sept 2024 | 5 | 5 | +0.31% | +0.17% | 54 pips · 64% | – | Replay |
| 1 Aug 2024 | 5 | 5 | -0.11% | +0.13% | 54 pips · 96% | yes | Replay |
| 20 Jun 2024 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.10% | -0.18% | 29 pips · 41% | – | Replay |
| 9 May 2024 | 5.25 | – | -0.25% | -0.14% | 41 pips · 52% | – | Replay |
| 21 Mar 2024 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.08% | -0.11% | 24 pips · 36% | – | Replay |
| 1 Feb 2024 | 5.25 | – | +0.13% | +0.27% | 53 pips · 65% | – | Replay |
| 14 Dec 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.35% | +0.40% | 75 pips · 86% | – | Replay |
| 2 Nov 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.14% | +0.18% | 42 pips · 46% | – | Replay |
| 21 Sept 2023 | 5.25 | 5.5 | -0.35% | -0.23% | 70 pips · 81% | – | Replay |
| 3 Aug 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.28% | -0.11% | 70 pips · 65% | – | Replay |
| 22 Jun 2023 | 5 | 4.75 | -0.06% | -0.15% | 131 pips · 133% | – | Replay |
| 11 May 2023 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.14% | +0.10% | 46 pips · 50% | – | Replay |
| 23 Mar 2023 | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.02% | -0.23% | 72 pips · 58% | yes | Replay |
| 2 Feb 2023 | 4 | 4 | +0.11% | -0.32% | 143 pips · 116% | yes | Replay |
| 15 Dec 2022 | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.09% | -0.14% | 58 pips · 41% | – | Replay |
| 3 Nov 2022 | 3 | 3 | -0.01% | -0.79% | 127 pips · 67% | – | Replay |
| 22 Sept 2022 | 2.25 | 2.25 | -0.30% | -0.28% | 87 pips · 72% | – | Replay |
| 4 Aug 2022 | 1.75 | 1.75 | -0.52% | -0.83% | 162 pips · 125% | – | Replay |
| 16 Jun 2022 | 1.25 | 1.25 | -0.62% | -0.22% | 140 pips · 107% | – | Replay |
| 5 May 2022 | 1 | 1 | -0.30% | -1.20% | 208 pips · 183% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the BoE page.
Frequently asked questions
How does GBPUSD react to BoE?
Across 82 BoE releases since 4 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, GBPUSD's first hour averaged 74% of a normal day's range, about 49.9 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 12% of the time.
Does GBPUSD go up or down after BoE?
Neither reliably on its own: GBPUSD was higher an hour after BoE on 44% of releases.
How much does GBPUSD move on BoE?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 49.9 pips. On 21% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 14 Sept 2017: 189 pips, 220% of a normal day.
