Every release since 19 Jan 2016: 44 on record, actual against forecast. High impact for the CNY. Updated within the hour of each release.
The last China GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3 2026, released 19 Oct 2026) came in at 4.5%, above the 4.4% forecast; the previous reading was 4.3%.
Since 2016, China GDP Growth Rate YoY has come in above forecast 68% of the time and below 23% (44 releases with a forecast); over the last 12 it beat 67%.
The average miss against forecast over the last 24 releases was 0.37%: higher than expected is good for the CNY.
| Released | Period | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 22:00 | Q3 2026 | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | above |
| 15 Jul 2026 22:00 | Q2 2026 | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5% | below |
| 16 Apr 2026 22:00 | Q1 2026 | 5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | above |
| 19 Jan 2026 21:00 | Q4 2025 | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | above |
| 20 Oct 2025 22:00 | Q3 2025 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | in line |
| 15 Jul 2025 22:00 | Q2 2025 | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | above |
| 16 Apr 2025 22:00 | Q1 2025 | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | above |
| 17 Jan 2025 21:00 | Q4 2024 | 5.4% | 5% | 4.6% | above |
| 18 Oct 2024 22:00 | Q3 2024 | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | above |
| 15 Jul 2024 22:00 | Q2 2024 | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | below |
| 16 Apr 2024 22:00 | Q1 2024 | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | above |
| 17 Jan 2024 21:00 | Q4 2023 | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5% | in line |
| 18 Oct 2023 22:00 | Q3 2023 | 5% | 4.4% | 6.5% | above |
| 17 Jul 2023 22:00 | Q2 2023 | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% | below |
| 18 Apr 2023 22:00 | Q1 2023 | 4.7% | 4% | 3% | above |
| 17 Jan 2023 21:00 | Q4 2022 | 3% | 1.8% | 4% | above |
| 21 Oct 2022 22:00 | Q3 2022 | 4% | 3.4% | 0.8% | above |
| 15 Jul 2022 22:00 | Q2 2022 | 0.8% | 1% | 4.8% | below |
| 18 Apr 2022 22:00 | Q1 2022 | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | above |
| 17 Jan 2022 21:00 | Q4 2021 | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | above |
| 18 Oct 2021 22:00 | Q3 2021 | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.1% | above |
| 15 Jul 2021 22:00 | Q2 2021 | 8.1% | 8.1% | 18.9% | in line |
| 16 Apr 2021 22:00 | Q1 2021 | 18.9% | 19% | 6.5% | below |
| 18 Jan 2021 21:00 | Q4 2020 | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | above |
| 19 Oct 2020 22:00 | Q3 2020 | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | below |
| 16 Jul 2020 22:00 | Q2 2020 | 3.2% | 2.5% | -6.8% | above |
| 17 Apr 2020 22:00 | Q1 2020 | -6.8% | -6.5% | 5.9% | below |
| 17 Jan 2020 21:00 | Q4 2019 | 5.9% | 6% | 6% | below |
| 18 Oct 2019 22:00 | Q3 2019 | 6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | below |
| 15 Jul 2019 22:00 | Q2 2019 | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | below |
| 17 Apr 2019 22:00 | Q1 2019 | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | above |
| 21 Jan 2019 21:00 | Q4 2018 | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | above |
| 19 Oct 2018 22:00 | Q3 2018 | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | above |
| 16 Jul 2018 22:00 | Q2 2018 | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | above |
| 17 Apr 2018 22:00 | Q1 2018 | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | above |
| 18 Jan 2018 02:00 | Q4 2017 | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | above |
| 19 Oct 2017 22:00 | Q3 2017 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7% | above |
| 17 Jul 2017 22:00 | Q2 2017 | 7% | 6.8% | 7% | above |
| 17 Apr 2017 22:00 | Q1 2017 | 7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | above |
| 10 Jan 2017 21:00 | Q4 2016 | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | above |
| 19 Oct 2016 22:00 | Q3 2016 | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | in line |
| 15 Jul 2016 22:00 | Q2 2016 | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | above |
| 15 Apr 2016 22:00 | Q1 2016 | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | above |
| 19 Jan 2016 21:00 | Q4 2015 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7% | above |
The last China GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3 2026, released 19 Oct 2026) came in at 4.5%, above the 4.4% forecast; the previous reading was 4.3%.
China GDP Growth Rate YoY is released quarterly by National Bureau of Statistics. CRTLAB has 44 releases on record since 19 Jan 2016.
Since 2016, China GDP Growth Rate YoY has come in above forecast 68% of the time and below 23% (44 releases with a forecast); over the last 12 it beat 67%.
The highest was 18.9% (Q1 2021) and the lowest -6.8% (Q1 2020). The five-year average is 4.62%.
Usually yes: a reading above forecast is the good surprise for the CNY, and the bigger the surprise the bigger the move. On this page, green marks a release that was good for the CNY against its forecast, red one that was bad.
In China, Gross Domestic Product is divided by three sectors: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary. The Primary Industry includes Farming, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery and accounts for around 9 percent of GDP.