How AUDUSD reacts to RBA
Every RBA rate decision release since 2 Aug 2016 measured on AUDUSD's 1-minute chart: 104 releases, the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes of each. Updated the morning after every release.
The short answer
From 104 releasesAcross 104 RBA releases since 2 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, AUDUSD's first hour averaged 51% of a normal day's range, about 29 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 18% of the time.
When RBA came in above forecast (5 times), AUDUSD was higher an hour later 80% of the time, up 0.47% on average.
The biggest first hour against its own normal day was 7 May 2019: 68 pips, 143% of a normal day.
Every RBA release on AUDUSD
104 measured · change from the release minute| Release | Actual | Forecast | 5 min | 1 hour | First-hour range | Reversed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sept 2026 | 4.6 | 4.6 | +0.09% | +0.13% | 20.7 pips · 47% | – | Replay |
| 11 Aug 2026 | 4.35 | 4.35 | -0.12% | -0.25% | 21.5 pips · 46% | – | Replay |
| 16 Jun 2026 | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.01% | +0.01% | 10.5 pips · 18% | – | Replay |
| 5 May 2026 | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.15% | -0.18% | 27.5 pips · 42% | yes | Replay |
| 16 Mar 2026 | 4.1 | 4.1 | -0.30% | -0.33% | 46 pips · 55% | – | Replay |
| 2 Feb 2026 | 3.85 | 3.85 | +0.56% | +0.80% | 68 pips · 113% | – | Replay |
| 8 Dec 2025 | 3.6 | 3.6 | -0.07% | +0.04% | 28 pips · 68% | yes | Replay |
| 3 Nov 2025 | 3.6 | 3.6 | -0.14% | -0.04% | 17 pips · 34% | – | Replay |
| 30 Sept 2025 | 3.6 | – | +0.20% | +0.28% | 22 pips · 45% | – | Replay |
| 12 Aug 2025 | 3.6 | 3.6 | -0.06% | -0.21% | 20 pips · 39% | – | Replay |
| 8 Jul 2025 | 3.85 | 3.6 | +0.42% | +0.41% | 45.5 pips · 78% | – | Replay |
| 20 May 2025 | 3.85 | 3.85 | -0.19% | -0.11% | 21.5 pips · 29% | – | Replay |
| 31 Mar 2025 | 4.1 | 4.1 | +0.04% | -0.01% | 18.5 pips · 31% | – | Replay |
| 17 Feb 2025 | 4.1 | 4.1 | +0.28% | -0.04% | 33.5 pips · 58% | – | Replay |
| 9 Dec 2024 | 4.35 | 4.35 | -0.36% | -0.20% | 35 pips · 60% | – | Replay |
| 4 Nov 2024 | 4.35 | 4.35 | -0.01% | +0.08% | 14.5 pips · 30% | yes | Replay |
| 24 Sept 2024 | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.12% | +0.26% | 19.5 pips · 35% | – | Replay |
| 6 Aug 2024 | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.03% | +0.06% | 21 pips · 40% | – | Replay |
| 18 Jun 2024 | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.10% | +0.11% | 17 pips · 31% | – | Replay |
| 7 May 2024 | 4.35 | 4.35 | -0.22% | -0.20% | 29.5 pips · 48% | – | Replay |
| 18 Mar 2024 | 4.35 | 4.35 | -0.21% | -0.36% | 27 pips · 57% | – | Replay |
| 5 Feb 2024 | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.16% | +0.35% | 27.5 pips · 47% | – | Replay |
| 4 Dec 2023 | 4.35 | 4.35 | -0.31% | -0.35% | 40 pips · 59% | – | Replay |
| 6 Nov 2023 | 4.35 | 4.35 | -0.42% | -0.55% | 58.5 pips · 95% | – | Replay |
| 2 Oct 2023 | 4.1 | 4.1 | -0.12% | -0.35% | 30 pips · 50% | – | Replay |
| 5 Sept 2023 | 4.1 | 4.1 | -0.04% | -0.08% | 13.5 pips · 21% | – | Replay |
| 1 Aug 2023 | 4.1 | 4.35 | -0.47% | -0.40% | 46.5 pips · 62% | – | Replay |
| 4 Jul 2023 | 4.1 | 4.35 | -0.46% | -0.40% | 38.5 pips · 57% | – | Replay |
| 6 Jun 2023 | 4.1 | 3.85 | +0.63% | +0.64% | 56 pips · 89% | – | Replay |
| 2 May 2023 | 3.85 | 3.6 | +0.81% | +1.13% | 80 pips · 120% | – | Replay |
| 4 Apr 2023 | 3.6 | 3.6 | -0.26% | -0.21% | 31 pips · 37% | – | Replay |
| 6 Mar 2023 | 3.6 | 3.6 | -0.35% | -0.50% | 52.5 pips · 68% | – | Replay |
| 6 Feb 2023 | 3.35 | 3.35 | +0.26% | +0.21% | 37 pips · 44% | – | Replay |
| 5 Dec 2022 | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.22% | +0.33% | 24.5 pips · 24% | – | Replay |
| 31 Oct 2022 | 2.85 | 2.85 | -0.40% | -0.12% | 37 pips · 33% | – | Replay |
| 3 Oct 2022 | 2.6 | 2.85 | -0.47% | -0.63% | 63 pips · 63% | – | Replay |
Older releases: every one is on its own page from the RBA page.
Frequently asked questions
How does AUDUSD react to RBA?
Across 104 RBA releases since 2 Aug 2016, measured from 1-minute data, AUDUSD's first hour averaged 51% of a normal day's range, about 29 pips over the last 12. The first five minutes' direction reversed within the hour 18% of the time.
Does AUDUSD go up or down after RBA?
Neither reliably on its own: AUDUSD was higher an hour after RBA on 55% of releases. When RBA came in above forecast (5 times), AUDUSD was higher an hour later 80% of the time, up 0.47% on average.
How much does AUDUSD move on RBA?
The typical first hour over the last 12 releases was 29 pips. On 7% of releases the first hour alone covered a full normal day. The biggest against its own normal day was 7 May 2019: 68 pips, 143% of a normal day.
When is the next RBA?
Monday, 7 December 2026 at 22:30 New York.