Every release since 31 Mar 2016: 43 on record, actual against forecast. High impact for the JPY. Updated within the hour of each release.
The last Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3 2026, released 30 Sept 2026) came in at 24, below the 25 forecast; the previous reading was 22.
Since 2016, Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index has come in above forecast 49% of the time and below 42% (43 releases with a forecast); over the last 12 it beat 58%.
The average miss against forecast over the last 24 releases was 2.21: higher than expected is good for the JPY.
| Released | Period | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sept 2026 19:50 | Q3 2026 | 24 | 25 | 22 | below |
| 30 Jun 2026 19:50 | Q2 2026 | 22 | 16 | 17 | above |
| 31 Mar 2026 19:50 | Q1 2026 | 17 | 16 | 15 | above |
| 14 Dec 2025 18:50 | Q4 2025 | 15 | 15 | 14 | in line |
| 30 Sept 2025 19:50 | Q3 2025 | 14 | 15 | 13 | below |
| 30 Jun 2025 19:50 | Q2 2025 | 13 | 10 | 12 | above |
| 31 Mar 2025 19:50 | Q1 2025 | 12 | 12 | 14 | in line |
| 12 Dec 2024 18:50 | Q4 2024 | 14 | 12 | 13 | above |
| 30 Sept 2024 19:50 | Q3 2024 | 13 | 13 | 13 | in line |
| 30 Jun 2024 19:50 | Q2 2024 | 13 | 12 | 11 | above |
| 31 Mar 2024 19:50 | Q1 2024 | 11 | 10 | 13 | above |
| 12 Dec 2023 18:50 | Q4 2023 | 13 | 10 | 9 | above |
| 1 Oct 2023 19:50 | Q3 2023 | 9 | 6 | 5 | above |
| 2 Jul 2023 19:50 | Q2 2023 | 5 | 3 | 1 | above |
| 2 Apr 2023 19:50 | Q1 2023 | 1 | 3 | 7 | below |
| 13 Dec 2022 18:50 | Q4 2022 | 7 | 6 | 8 | above |
| 2 Oct 2022 19:50 | Q3 2022 | 8 | 11 | 9 | below |
| 30 Jun 2022 19:50 | Q2 2022 | 9 | 13 | 14 | below |
| 31 Mar 2022 19:50 | Q1 2022 | 14 | 12 | 18 | above |
| 12 Dec 2021 18:50 | Q4 2021 | 18 | 19 | 18 | below |
| 30 Sept 2021 19:50 | Q3 2021 | 18 | 13 | 14 | above |
| 30 Jun 2021 19:50 | Q2 2021 | 14 | 15 | 5 | below |
| 31 Mar 2021 19:50 | Q1 2021 | 5 | 0 | -10 | above |
| 13 Dec 2020 18:50 | Q4 2020 | -10 | -15 | -27 | above |
| 30 Sept 2020 19:50 | Q3 2020 | -27 | -23 | -34 | below |
| 30 Jun 2020 19:50 | Q2 2020 | -34 | -31 | -8 | below |
| 31 Mar 2020 19:50 | Q1 2020 | -8 | -10 | 0 | above |
| 12 Dec 2019 18:50 | Q4 2019 | 0 | 2 | 5 | below |
| 30 Sept 2019 19:50 | Q3 2019 | 5 | 2 | 7 | above |
| 30 Jun 2019 19:50 | Q2 2019 | 7 | 9 | 12 | below |
| 31 Mar 2019 19:50 | Q1 2019 | 12 | 14 | 19 | below |
| 13 Dec 2018 18:50 | Q4 2018 | 19 | 17 | 19 | above |
| 30 Sept 2018 19:50 | Q3 2018 | 19 | 22 | 21 | below |
| 1 Jul 2018 19:50 | Q2 2018 | 21 | 22 | 24 | below |
| 1 Apr 2018 19:50 | Q1 2018 | 24 | 25 | 25 | below |
| 14 Dec 2017 18:50 | Q4 2017 | 25 | 24 | 22 | above |
| 1 Oct 2017 19:50 | Q3 2017 | 22 | 18 | 17 | above |
| 2 Jul 2017 19:50 | Q2 2017 | 17 | 15 | 12 | above |
| 2 Apr 2017 19:50 | Q1 2017 | 12 | 14 | 10 | below |
| 13 Dec 2016 18:50 | Q4 2016 | 10 | 10 | 6 | in line |
| 2 Oct 2016 19:50 | Q3 2016 | 6 | 7 | 6 | below |
| 30 Jun 2016 19:50 | Q2 2016 | 6 | 4 | 6 | above |
| 31 Mar 2016 19:50 | Q1 2016 | 6 | 8 | 12 | below |
The last Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3 2026, released 30 Sept 2026) came in at 24, below the 25 forecast; the previous reading was 22.
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index is released quarterly by Central Bank. CRTLAB has 43 releases on record since 31 Mar 2016.
Since 2016, Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index has come in above forecast 49% of the time and below 42% (43 releases with a forecast); over the last 12 it beat 58%.
The highest was 25 (Q4 2017) and the lowest -34 (Q2 2020). The five-year average is 12.6.
Usually yes: a reading above forecast is the good surprise for the JPY, and the bigger the surprise the bigger the move. On this page, green marks a release that was good for the JPY against its forecast, red one that was bad.
In Japan, the quarterly Tankan Index of Sentiment at Large Manufacturers covers about 1,100 companies with capital over 1 billion Yen. The survey is done by mail or e-mail and asks participants to evaluate current trends and conditions in the business place and their respective industries as well as their expected business activities for the next quarter and year.