Every release since 19 Dec 2018: 16 on record, actual against forecast. Medium impact for the USD. Updated within the hour of each release.
The last US Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr (Q1 2026, released 16 Sept 2026) came in at 3.6%; the previous reading was 3.1%.
| Released | Period | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sept 2026 14:00 | Q1 2026 | 3.6% | – | 3.1% | – |
| 10 Dec 2025 14:00 | Q4 2025 | 3.1% | – | 3.1% | – |
| 17 Sept 2025 14:00 | Q3 2024 | 3.1% | – | 3.1% | – |
| 18 Dec 2024 14:00 | Q2 2024 | 3.1% | – | 2.9% | – |
| 18 Sept 2024 14:00 | Q1 2024 | 2.9% | – | 2.9% | – |
| 13 Dec 2023 14:00 | Q4 2023 | 2.9% | – | 2.9% | – |
| 20 Sept 2023 14:00 | Q3 2023 | 2.9% | – | 3.1% | – |
| 14 Dec 2022 14:00 | Q4 2022 | 3.1% | – | 2.9% | – |
| 21 Sept 2022 14:00 | Q3 2022 | 2.9% | – | 2.1% | – |
| 15 Dec 2021 14:00 | Q4 2021 | 2.1% | – | 1.8% | – |
| 22 Sept 2021 14:00 | Q3 2021 | 1.8% | – | 0.1% | – |
| 16 Dec 2020 14:00 | Q4 2020 | 0.1% | – | 0.1% | – |
| 16 Sept 2020 14:00 | Q3 2020 | 0.1% | – | 2.1% | – |
| 11 Dec 2019 14:00 | Q4 2019 | 2.1% | – | 2.4% | – |
| 18 Sept 2019 14:00 | Q3 2019 | 2.4% | – | 3.1% | – |
| 19 Dec 2018 14:00 | Q4 2018 | 3.1% | – | 3.4% | – |
The last US Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr (Q1 2026, released 16 Sept 2026) came in at 3.6%; the previous reading was 3.1%.
US Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr is released yearly by Federal Reserve. CRTLAB has 16 releases on record since 19 Dec 2018.
The highest was 3.6% (Q1 2026) and the lowest 0.1% (Q4 2020). The five-year average is 2.97%.
Usually yes: a reading above forecast is the good surprise for the USD, and the bigger the surprise the bigger the move. On this page, green marks a release that was good for the USD against its forecast, red one that was bad.
In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks.