How Markets React to GDP
Every US GDP release, measured across gold, indices, forex and oil from 1-minute bars: the first 5, 15 and 60 minutes, what it swept, and whether the first move held. A new page lands the morning after each release.
First hour after GDP, on average
24 releases so far. The first-hour range as a share of each market's normal full day.
| Market | First hour vs a normal day | Reversed within the hour | Swept a key level |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 45% | 5 of 24 | 7 of 24 |
| GBPUSD | 42% | 7 of 24 | 5 of 24 |
| USDJPY | 36% | 4 of 23 | 1 of 23 |
| AUDUSD | 34% | 6 of 23 | 6 of 23 |
| Silver | 33% | 6 of 24 | 0 of 24 |
| Gold | 32% | 6 of 24 | 2 of 24 |
| Oil | 27% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 24 |
| US30 | 24% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 24 |
| S&P 500 | 24% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 24 |
| Ethereum | 24% | 7 of 22 | 2 of 22 |
| Bitcoin | 24% | 7 of 22 | 1 of 22 |
| NAS100 | 23% | 6 of 24 | 4 of 24 |
Every GDP release
Frequently asked questions
Which market moves most on GDP?
Across 24 GDP releases measured, EURUSD moved most in the first hour relative to its normal day (45% of an average day's range), then GBPUSD (42%) and USDJPY (36%).
Does the first move after GDP hold?
EURUSD: reversed within the hour 5 of 24 times; GBPUSD: reversed within the hour 7 of 24 times; USDJPY: reversed within the hour 4 of 23 times; AUDUSD: reversed within the hour 6 of 23 times.
Trade the next release before it happens.
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