Backtest · TQQQ
Backtest TQQQ — Candle by Candle
TQQQ is the most misunderstood instrument in this catalogue, and the misunderstanding is arithmetic rather than opinion. It is a 3x daily-rebalanced product: it targets three times the Nasdaq 100's return each day, and it resets. Over any period longer than one day, its return is not three times QQQ's — it is path-dependent, and in choppy conditions it is systematically worse. A backtest that assumes otherwise will overstate its results, sometimes enormously.
Volatility decay, with the arithmetic done
The mechanism is easiest to see in two days. Suppose the index falls 10% and then rises 11.1%, returning exactly to where it started. The 3x product falls 30% to 70, then rises 33.3% to about 93.3 — down nearly 7% while the index is flat. Nothing has gone wrong; that is what daily rebalancing does, and it happens on every oscillation, in both directions.
The practical consequence for your test is that a swing or positional strategy on TQQQ is not the same strategy it is on QQQ, even with the position size divided by three. The drag depends on how choppy the path was, which is not something you can adjust for after the fact — it has to be in the data, and here it is.
This is also why the honest use of a leveraged ETF is short-horizon. Intraday, the rebalancing has not happened yet and the 3x exposure is roughly what it says. Over weeks, it is a different product. Testing both horizons in the same archive is the fastest way to see the difference for yourself rather than taking anyone's word for it.
What the TQQQ data actually is
The archive runs from May 2018 to the most recent session we hold, on every timeframe from one minute to monthly. It is open from the first chart — there is no plan that unlocks more of it, and no shorter window for people who have not paid.
Equity data here is regular hours only — 09:30 to 16:00 New York, no pre-market and no after-hours. That is not a gap in the data, it is what an equity session is, and it has a consequence worth planning for: every trading day opens with a gap rather than continuing from the previous close, so any rule you carried over from an index future or an FX pair is about to meet a discontinuity it has never been tested against.
Prices are split-adjusted throughout, so a chart of 2019 shows what you would compare against today rather than the raw tape. Getting this wrong is the classic silent equity-backtest bug: an unadjusted series prints a 90% single-day crash on the split date, and a stop-loss rule tested through it produces numbers that mean nothing.
How to backtest TQQQ without fooling yourself
Run the identical rule on QQQ and on TQQQ over the same dates, then compare the TQQQ result against three times the QQQ result. The shortfall is the decay, measured on your actual strategy rather than in the abstract.
Do that separately for an intraday rule and a multi-day rule. The gap between those two comparisons is the single most useful number this instrument can give you.
Size with real care — the risk of ruin calculator is not optional on a 3x product, because the same percentage stop is three times the account risk it would be on the underlying.
Frequently asked questions
Is TQQQ backtesting free?
Yes, and there is no card and no trial timer. You get TQQQ back to May 2018, with every tool the product has, for 2,000 candles of replay — about two hours of stepping through a chart. After that you top up for $5, or pay $19.99 once and never think about it again. Nothing you buy expires. QQQ is open on the same terms, and running both is the only way to measure the decay on your own strategy rather than in the abstract.
Why is TQQQ not just 3x QQQ?
Because it rebalances daily. It targets 3x the index's return each day and resets, so over longer periods the result is path-dependent. A 10% fall followed by an 11.1% rise leaves the index flat and the 3x product about 7% down — that drag happens on every oscillation and compounds.
Can I use a QQQ strategy on TQQQ with a third of the size?
Not reliably. Dividing position size handles the leverage but not the decay, which depends on how choppy the path was and cannot be corrected after the fact. Run the strategy on both series and compare — the shortfall against 3x is the part size adjustment does not fix.
What is TQQQ actually good for testing?
Short-horizon rules. Intraday, the daily rebalance has not occurred and the exposure is close to what it claims. Over weeks it is a materially different product, and seeing both in the same archive is the point of having it here.
Open TQQQ and start stepping
Real the 3x Nasdaq 100 ETF history, split-adjusted, one candle at a time. No account, no card, 2,000 candles free.
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